California New Car Dealers Association Releases Q3 2024 Auto Outlook Report

Media Contact: Autumn Heacox, Communications & Marketing Director: aheacox@cncda.org, (916) 441-2599 x105

Q3 2024 CA Auto Outlook Report: Tesla Sales Slip 12.6% in 2024
Combined Share for CA’s Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Sales Reaches 39.4%

SACRAMENTO, CA, October 25, 2024— Today, the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook covering the first three quarters of 2024. The report summarizes California’s new vehicle registrations and predicts anticipated yearly sales. For accurate reporting, please cite Experian Automotive as the data source for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.

Key Highlights
California’s new light vehicle registrations fell by 1.7 percent YTD versus the year earlier, totaling 1,320,708. The State is forecasted to reach 1.75 million new vehicle registrations by year-end. Overall sales in 2023 reached 1.77 million, indicating a flat YOY prediction. Additionally, early 2025 estimates remain in the narrow range, with total projected sales to reach 1.79 million.

New vehicle registrations in the Golden State seem to be leveling off post-pandemic with a new yearly average benchmark. Three of the past four years have totaled approximately 1.76 million registrations, far less than the pre-pandemic years (2015-2019), which hovered just above 2 million registrations. Affordability remains a key issue holding back numbers, but lower interest rates, falling inflation, increasing employment, and rising incentives may help sales rise into 2025.

Tesla’s Model Y remains the top-selling car in California year-to-date, but the company’s sales continue to slip, losing 8.5 percent market share compared to last year. This marks a full year of registration declines for Tesla in California, leaving the “alternative powertrain door” open for traditional automakers. Manufacturers and dealers have embraced this shift, expanding their share of battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales to 40.2 percent as consumers increasingly turn to exciting, new electric vehicle (EV) options.

Brands like Kia, BMW, and Hyundai have gained traction, increasing their year-to-date market shares by 1.4, 1.3, and 1.3 percents, respectively. Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 is now the third best-selling BEV in California.

YTD, BEVs currently comprise 22.2 percent of the State’s market share, showing a slight increase this year. When considering all alternative powertrains—plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), hybrids, and BEVs— these vehicles account for 39.4 percent of new sales in the first nine months of 2024, a significant increase from just 11.6 percent in 2018.

“California’s franchised dealers are here to meet the needs of our customers, whether they prefer traditional gas-powered vehicles or are shifting to electric or hybrid alternatives. We’re proud to be at the forefront of the Nation’s evolving auto industry, providing the choices and expertise Californians need as they navigate their options,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “At the end of the day, it’s about serving our communities and offering vehicles that best suit their lifestyle while supporting a greener future in a way that aligns with consumer demand and affordability.”

Brand Market Share and Summary
Among all powertrains, Toyota remains California’s preferred brand, with 215,402 registrations YTD and 16.3 percent of the market share.

Other YTD market share brand leaders: Tesla (with 12.1 percent market share) and Honda (with 10.9 percent market share). Honda also posted a noteworthy 11.2 percent increase in registrations this year, with 143,391 registrations YTD.

Still holding the position as California’s second best-selling brand, Tesla is grappling with significant hurdles. Its market share dropped by 12.6 points compared to last year, and Q3 2024 registrations fell by 3.5 percent from Q3 2023. This decline suggests that Tesla’s once-coveted appeal continues its downward trend, raising more concerns for the direct-to-consumer brand.

Five brands in the State have improved their registrations by 20 percent (or more) this year. These brands include Jaguar (222.6 percent), Buick (39.9 percent), Rivian (35.4 percent), Lincoln (27.6 percent), and Dodge (20 percent).

Model Segment Rankings
Unchanged from the last two quarters, California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q3 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.

The top three passenger cars sold in California YTD saw variations from Q2. The Honda Civic is now the best-selling passenger car in California (with 40,741 registrations), followed by the Toyota Camry (40,025 registrations), with the Tesla Model 3 taking third place (37,219 registrations). The top three light trucks sold YTD were the Tesla Model Y (105,693 registrations), the Toyota RAV4 (49,810), and the Honda CR-V (37,759 registrations).

Regional Variances
Northern California car registrations dropped 15.4 percent YTD, while light trucks were up .6 percent. Southern California cars also slipped by 12.3 percent. However, southern California light truck registrations saw a jump of 4.2 percent.

Regionally, the San Diego County market has been the most insulated from declines, with a  -0.7 percent dip in YTD registrations. The San Francisco Bay Area market saw the largest dip in registrations, posting -4.3 percent this year.

Click Here to Access the Q3 2024 Auto Outlook Report.

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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the data source: Experian Automotive.

The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a vehicle powertrain dashboard, a segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org. 

About CNCDA

For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.77 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 138,807 people, paid $8.74 billion in sales tax, and donated $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with nearly 1,200 members— and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.