Q3 2024 CA Auto Outlook Report: Tesla Sales Slip 12.6% in 2024 Combined Share for CA’s Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Sales Reaches 39.4%
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SACRAMENTO, CA, October 25, 2024— Today, the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook covering the first three quarters of 2024. The report summarizes California’s new vehicle registrations and predicts anticipated yearly sales. For accurate reporting, please cite Experian Automotive as the data source for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.
Key Highlights California’s new light vehicle registrations fell by 1.7 percent YTD versus the year earlier, totaling 1,320,708. The State is forecasted to reach 1.75 million new vehicle registrations by year-end. Overall sales in 2023 reached 1.77 million, indicating a flat YOY prediction. Additionally, early 2025 estimates remain in the narrow range, with total projected sales to reach 1.79 million.
New vehicle registrations in the Golden State seem to be leveling off post-pandemic with a new yearly average benchmark. Three of the past four years have totaled approximately 1.76 million registrations, far less than the pre-pandemic years (2015-2019), which hovered just above 2 million registrations. Affordability remains a key issue holding back numbers, but lower interest rates, falling inflation, increasing employment, and rising incentives may help sales rise into 2025.
Tesla’s Model Y remains the top-selling car in California year-to-date, but the company’s sales continue to slip, losing 8.5 percent market share compared to last year. This marks a full year of registration declines for Tesla in California, leaving the “alternative powertrain door” open for traditional automakers. Manufacturers and dealers have embraced this shift, expanding their share of battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales to 40.2 percent as consumers increasingly turn to exciting, new electric vehicle (EV) options.
Brands like Kia, BMW, and Hyundai have gained traction, increasing their year-to-date market shares by 1.4, 1.3, and 1.3 percents, respectively. Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 is now the third best-selling BEV in California.
YTD, BEVs currently comprise 22.2 percent of the State’s market share, showing a slight increase this year. When considering all alternative powertrains—plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), hybrids, and BEVs— these vehicles account for 39.4 percent of new sales in the first nine months of 2024, a significant increase from just 11.6 percent in 2018.
“California’s franchised dealers are here to meet the needs of our customers, whether they prefer traditional gas-powered vehicles or are shifting to electric or hybrid alternatives. We’re proud to be at the forefront of the Nation’s evolving auto industry, providing the choices and expertise Californians need as they navigate their options,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “At the end of the day, it’s about serving our communities and offering vehicles that best suit their lifestyle while supporting a greener future in a way that aligns with consumer demand and affordability.”
Brand Market Share and Summary Among all powertrains, Toyota remains California’s preferred brand, with 215,402 registrations YTD and 16.3 percent of the market share.
Other YTD market share brand leaders: Tesla (with 12.1 percent market share) and Honda (with 10.9 percent market share). Honda also posted a noteworthy 11.2 percent increase in registrations this year, with 143,391 registrations YTD.
Still holding the position as California’s second best-selling brand, Tesla is grappling with significant hurdles. Its market share dropped by 12.6 points compared to last year, and Q3 2024 registrations fell by 3.5 percent from Q3 2023. This decline suggests that Tesla’s once-coveted appeal continues its downward trend, raising more concerns for the direct-to-consumer brand.
Five brands in the State have improved their registrations by 20 percent (or more) this year. These brands include Jaguar (222.6 percent), Buick (39.9 percent), Rivian (35.4 percent), Lincoln (27.6 percent), and Dodge (20 percent).
Model Segment Rankings Unchanged from the last two quarters, California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q3 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
The top three passenger cars sold in California YTD saw variations from Q2. The Honda Civic is now the best-selling passenger car in California (with 40,741 registrations), followed by the Toyota Camry (40,025 registrations), with the Tesla Model 3 taking third place (37,219 registrations). The top three light trucks sold YTD were the Tesla Model Y (105,693 registrations), the Toyota RAV4 (49,810), and the Honda CR-V (37,759 registrations).
Regional Variances Northern California car registrations dropped 15.4 percent YTD, while light trucks were up .6 percent. Southern California cars also slipped by 12.3 percent. However, southern California light truck registrations saw a jump of 4.2 percent.
Regionally, the San Diego County market has been the most insulated from declines, with a -0.7 percent dip in YTD registrations. The San Francisco Bay Area market saw the largest dip in registrations, posting -4.3 percent this year.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the data source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a vehicle powertrain dashboard, a segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.77 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 138,807 people, paid $8.74 billion in sales tax, and donated $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with nearly 1,200 members— and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Q2 2024 Auto Outlook Report
Q2 2024 CA Auto Outlook Report: Has Tesla Peaked in CA? Sales Slip 17% YTD; New Vehicle Registrations Decline Slightly; Ioniq 5 Steals Third Place in EVs
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SACRAMENTO, CA, July 18, 2024— Today, the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook covering the first half of 2024. The report summarizes California’s new vehicle registrations and predicts anticipated yearly sales. For accurate reporting, please cite Experian Automotive as the data source for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.
Key Highlights California’s new light vehicle registrations fell by .7 percent YTD compared to last year, totaling 892,363. Despite this decline, the State is on track to hit a forecasted 1.8 million new vehicle registrations by year-end. Higher interest rates and inflation are squeezing consumer budgets. Still, the aging vehicle fleet (at a record all-time high) and technology and safety upgrades in new models are keeping the market resilient.
Tesla’s future appears to be dwindling as the brand’s sales continue to decline in the Golden State; registrations are down a significant 17 percent YTD (as compared to last year). While Tesla’s Model Y remains the top-selling car in the State, Tesla sales may have peaked. This new data marks the brand’s third consecutive quarter with registration declines (dipping 24.1 percent in Q2 2024, 7.8 percent in Q1 2024, and 9.8 percent in Q4 2023).
In stark contrast, mainstay brands like Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford are on the upswing, with significant gains and excitement around new EV models that Californians seem eager to adopt. This year, Toyota’s BEV registrations rose 108.1 percent, and Hyundai’s BEV registrations rose 65.7 percent. Notably, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 stole third place (from Tesla’s Model X) of the top-selling EVs in California YTD, with 7,191 registrations.
Ford BEV sales rose by 26.4 percent, and the Mustang Mach-E became the fifth most-sold EV YTD. This surge underscores how the State’s franchised new car dealers are expertly navigating the evolving market, driving consumer enthusiasm with trusted, high-performing brands.
“It’s an exciting time to be a franchised car dealer in California. With new competitive EV models and the latest ICE options, we’re able to meet diverse customers’ needs and provide the support they want from their local dealership,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “Our dealers are trusted community partners, providing Californians with high-quality, reliable vehicles- whether electric, traditional, or anything in between.”
Regardless of the powertrain, Toyota remains California’s top brand. With 150,964 registrations and 16.9 percent of the market share (a 2.1 point increase YTD from 2023), Toyota continues to lead the market.
Vehicle Powertrain Dashboard The report’s vehicle powertrain dashboard details the State’s BEV, hybrid, and PHEV sales and market health. California leads the nation in BEV registrations, with BEVs accounting for 21.4 percent of sales year-to-date. Thirty-three percent of nationwide BEV sales took place in California. The U.S. BEV market share is far less substantial, posting 7.5 percent YTD.
Additionally, after six months of declines, California’s BEV market share rose to 21.9 percent from 20.9 percent last quarter. The State’s hybrid registrations showed promise, jumping to 13.2 percent, and the PHEV market share remained steady at 3.4 percent this year.
In the first half of 2024, combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in the Golden State accounted for 38 percent of the market share. Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 62 percent of registrations.
California’s franchised new car and truck dealers account for over 67 percent of combined sales for all alternative powertrain types this year, demonstrating consumer confidence in local dealerships and mainstay brands. This trend is evident in the sales of BEVs by franchised dealerships, which have surged by 27 percent (while direct sellers, such as Tesla and Rivian, saw a 12.3 percent drop).
Model Segment Rankings Unchanged from last quarter, California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q2 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
Brand Market Share and Summary Tesla, the second best-selling brand in California with 102,106 registrations YTD, is facing mounting challenges. Its market share dipped 2.3 points from last year, and Q2 2024 registrations plummeted 24.1 percent compared to Q2 2023. Tesla’s allure seems to be wearing off, signaling potential trouble for the direct-to-consumer manufacturer.
Honda also reported an impressive 12.9 percent jump YTD (reaching 94,939 registrations). As reported last quarter, the top three passenger cars sold were the Toyota Camry, the Honda Civic, and the Tesla Model 3. The top three light trucks were the Tesla Model Y, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V.
Five brands in the State have improved registrations by more than 10 percent this year. These brands include Rivian (76.7 percent), Dodge (43.1 percent), Lexus (25.6 percent), Lincoln (23.3 percent), and Buick (19.5 percent).
Regional Variances Northern California’s BEV market share was 24.9 percent in the first half of this year, while Southern California’s share was 22.1 percent.
Specifically, light vehicle (non-fleet) registrations in N. and S. California showed declines of 3.3 and .1 percents, respectively. Regionally, the Bay Area posted a 3.2 percent decline, LA and Orange Counties increased slightly by .1 percent, and San Diego County’s sales increased by 1.6 percent, YTD.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the data source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a vehicle powertrain dashboard, a segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.77 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 138,807 people, paid $8.74 billion in sales tax, and donated $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with nearly 1,200 members— and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Q1 2024 Auto Outlook Report
Q1 2024 CA Auto Outlook Report: Tesla Registrations Drop; Sales Slip 7.8% YTD Overall New Vehicle Registrations Up; Toyota Market Share Exceeds 16%
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SACRAMENTO, CA, April 29, 2024— The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook covering the first quarter of 2024 today. The report summarizes quarterly new vehicle registration figures statewide and predicts overall 2024 sales. Experian Automotive provides data for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.
Californians’ love affair with electric vehicle giant Tesla may have peaked. Tesla registrations are down again in The Golden State YTD, reporting a 7.8 percent dip (last quarter posted a 9.8 percent decline) amongst all brand registrations. Toyota showed significant gains among the top three California shareholder brands, increasing to 16.6 percent, as did Honda, capturing 10.5 percent of the market, while Tesla’s numbers faltered (11.6 percent).
As Tesla’s dominance wanes, traditional manufacturers are stepping up to the plate, offering new plug-in hybrid (PHEV), hybrid, and battery electric vehicle (BEV) models. This shift is evident in the sales of BEVs by traditional franchised dealerships, which have surged by 14 percent (while direct sellers saw a three-point drop) compared to last year’s figures. Notably, franchised dealers account for over 66 percent of combined sales for all alternative powertrain types, demonstrating consumer confidence in local dealerships and mainstay brands (despite changing market dynamics).
“We’ve spent decades, even lifetimes, building trust with our neighbors, providing great jobs, and supporting our communities. Californians are smart. They recognize that we do our best to give customers high-quality cars they want at affordable price points,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “This is why we believe the Tesla sales model is ineffective, layoffs are happening, and people are generally dissatisfied with their level of service. We take pride in our dealerships, and it shows.”
The first quarter of 2024 reports a slight increase in overall registrations at .7 percent (the sixth consecutive quarterly increase) in the State, posting 431,638 new sales. This figure is in contrast with the Nation’s 9.6 percent improvement. Weaker results in California are partially attributed to relatively strong sales in the first quarter of 2023.
California’s pace of improvement is expected to ease overall in 2024 compared to last year. While registrations are predicted to exceed 1.8M units, the increase will likely remain in the single digits.
Toyota once again secured its lead as the top brand in California, with a 9.3 percent increase in registrations, as did Honda, with an impressive 18.6 percent jump YTD. The top three passenger cars sold were the Toyota Camry, the Honda Civic, and dropping from first place to third, the Tesla Model 3. The top three light trucks were the Tesla Model Y, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V.
Another brand of note this year is Dodge. Due to the recent introduction of the Hornet PHEV SUV, Dodge reported the second-highest positive change in California, with a 76.2 percent increase in new registrations last quarter.
Vehicle Powertrain Dashboard The report’s vehicle powertrain dashboard details the State’s BEV, hybrid, and PHEV sales and market health. The State’s BEV market share declined for the second quarter, falling to 20.9 percent from 21.5 percent at the end of 2023. Alternatively, the State’s hybrid registrations jumped again this quarter to 13 percent (up from 11.1 percent). California’s PHEV market share slightly increased, wrapping the first quarter at 3.6 percent.
Combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in The Golden State accounted for 37.5 percent of the market share last quarter (up from just 11.6 percent in 2018). Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 62.5 percent of registrations, dipping about 1.4 points from the end of 2023.
California continues to lead in BEV registrations, posting 32.5 percent of sales nationwide. The U.S. market share of BEV vehicles is far less substantial, posting 7.4 percent in Q1 2024.
Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Tesla may have the top three-selling electric vehicles in the State, however, first-quarter sales show a significant 6.4 percent YTD BEV market share loss. Mercedes and BMW showed the highest increases in BEV sales in the State last quarter, posting 3 and 2.4 percents, respectively.
Northern Californians continue to be the most significant adopters of BEVs, capturing 24.8 percent of the market share. Southern California BEV sales remained fairly level at 21.5 percent of sales last quarter.
Model Segment Rankings California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q1 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
Brand Market Share and Summary Registrations for five brands in the state have improved by more than 22 percent so far this year. Brands showing the most significant positive percent increases were Rivian (87.1 percent), Dodge (76.2 percent), Lexus (37.3 percent), Lincoln (25.8 percent), and Volvo (22 percent).
The Golden State’s brand registration numbers do not mirror those of the rest of the U.S., which reports Toyota at 13.4 percent of the market share, Ford at 12.4 percent, and Chevy at 10.4 percent last quarter.
Regional Variances Specifically, Car retail registrations in N. and S. California showed declines of 11.8 and 6 percents, respectively. Light truck retail registrations were up by 2.9 percent in N. California and 5.3 percent in S. California. A shining star, San Diego County’s share increased by 4.6 percent with 35,561 registrations this year.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a two-year perspective, vehicle powertrain dashboard, segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.77 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 138,807 people, paid $8.74 billion in sales tax, and donated $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with nearly 1,200 members— and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Year-End 2023 Auto Outlook Report
CA 2023 Auto Market Recap: Highest Registrations Reported Since 2020 New Vehicle Registrations Post 11.9% Increase in 2023
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The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its fourth quarter 2023 California Auto Outlook report today. The report summarizes vehicle registration and sales data for 2023, and estimates projected 2024 sales in California’s vehicle market. CNCDA’s Auto Outlook data is sourced from Experian Automotive.
Major takeaways: 2023 proved to be a banner year for new car sales in California, reaching the highest numbers since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.78 million sales reported (higher than the 1.76 million predicted by this publication last year). Year over year, the state’s 2023 new vehicle registrations posted an 11.9 percent increase (1,775,915) compared to 2022 figures.
The top three passenger cars sold in California in 2023 were the Tesla Model 3, the Toyota Camry, and the Honda Civic. The top three light trucks for the year were the Tesla Model Y, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V. Toyota held its place as the top-selling brand in California again in 2023.
Predictions for 2024 include another increase in new vehicle registrations by 3.2 percent, approaching 1.83 million units sold. This is due to the state’s significant and lasting demand for new cars, a strong labor market, and a positive economic outlook statewide. Potential threats include the 2024 presidential election, geopolitical tensions, etc. However, should Federal interest rates level out, auto sales in California are poised to post a more significant increase than predicted. These predictions are based on current trends and market conditions and may be subject to adjustment.
The report highlights the fifth consecutive quarterly increase in new car sales in the state. The Q4 2023 pace of new car sales showed a slight acceleration compared to Q3 (20.3 percent), posting a respectable 6 percent increase. The 2023 final registration numbers exceeded 426,000 units, 24,000 units higher than reported in Q4 2022.
“Overall, 2023 was a solid year for our businesses. We were able to adapt and evolve to meet our customers’ needs and preferences while remaining community stalwarts,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “We do our best to work with our respective manufacturers to inform them about statewide customer trends and order the vehicles that Californians tell us they want when they walk onto our lots daily.”
Vehicle Powertrain Dashboard
The report’s new vehicle powertrain dashboard details the state’s battery electric vehicles (BEV), non-plug-in hybrid, and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales and market health. The state’s BEV market share declined in Q4 2023 from the previous quarter, closing the year at 21.4 percent. Alternatively, the state’s non-plug-in hybrid vehicles jumped to their highest numbers, at 11.1 percent sold in 2023. California’s total new BEV market share sales increased by five percent compared to 2022.
ICE-powered vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 63.9 percent of the state’s new vehicle sales share in 2023, losing about 7.7 points from 2022 numbers. In 2023, combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in the state accounted for 35.9 percent of the market share (compared to 11.6 percent in 2018).
California leads the way in BEV registrations, posting 33.8 percent of all sales nationwide. The U.S. market share of BEV vehicles is less substantial, posting 7.5 percent in 2023.
Hybrids and Electric Vehicles
California’s top three selling BEV and PHEV models are the Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, and the Chevy Bolt. The Jeep Wrangler captured fourth place and remained the best-selling PHEV in 2023.
While Tesla remains California’s BEV market share leader, its lead is diminishing as traditional automakers roll out new electric models. Tesla showed a significant decline in sales in 2023, with a 10.5 percent loss in market share YTD. Mercedes and BMW showed the highest increase in BEV sales in the state, reporting 2.2 and 2.8 percent, respectively.
In 2023, franchised dealerships accounted for over 62 percent of all alternative powertrain types in combined sales. Last year, franchised dealership sales in the BEV-only market increased to 35.8 percent. Sales of BEVs at franchised dealerships rose 94 percent from 2022 to 2023, compared to a 29 percent increase by direct sellers. This helps further demonstrate that Californians are interested in purchasing new BEV model rollouts from the mainstay manufacturers that they know and trust.
In 2023, Northern Californians remained the significant adopters of BEVs, capturing 25.6 percent of the state’s BEV market share, while Southern CA sales reported 21.3 percent of registrations.
Model Segment Rankings
California’s 2023 best sellers in the primary segments include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and the Lexus RX.
Brand Market Share and Summary
Brand registrations increased in 2023 for 26 of the top 30 selling brands in the state, with Toyota remaining California’s market share leader, holding 15.7 percent. Tesla follows at 13 percent, Honda holds 9.7 percent, Ford at 7.7 percent, and Chevrolet at 6.7 percent.
The state’s registration numbers do not mirror the rest of the U.S., which reports Toyota (12.6 percent of share), Ford (11.8 percent), and Chevy (at 11.2 percent) as the top-selling brands in 2023.
The brands showing the most significant positive change in 2023 registration numbers in California were Rivian (142.7 percent), Buick (57.3 percent), Infinity (34.7 percent), Honda (33.4 percent), and Audi (31.5 percent).
Regional Variances
Car and light truck retail registrations from Northern and Southern California markets are up from last year. The Northern market captured an additional 10.1 percent of the statewide total year over year, with the Southern portion of the state showing an 8.8 percent increase from 2022.
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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on CA’s new vehicle market, includes annual trends, a two-year perspective, vehicle powertrain dashboard, segment watch, the top models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Access the complete report at www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2022, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.6 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 136,000 people, paid $8.46 billion in sales tax, and donated $62.84 million to charitable and civic organizations. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with over 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Third Quarter 2023 Auto Outlook
California 3Q 2023 Auto Market Recap: Registrations Continue to Rise New EV Models Contribute to 14.3 % Sales Increase YTD
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SACRAMENTO, CA, November 1, 2023 – The third quarter 2023 Auto Outlook report, published today by the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA), reveals a 14.3 percent increase in California’s new vehicle registrations compared to the first nine months of 2022. Forecasts from the Auto Outlook report show that California will end the year at 1.8 million new vehicle registrations and is predicted to reach 1.88 million in 2024. CNCDA’s historical Auto Outlook data is sourced from Experian Automotive. Click here to access the full report.
Pent-up demand remains high since the pandemic and is estimated to continue to support new vehicle sales for years to come. However, high interest rates leading to weakening affordability, depleted pandemic-built household savings, and the potential UAW strike after effects will be major factors in impeding the state’s new vehicle sales. That said, California’s Q3 2023 new car registration numbers are a full percentage point better than the national results, which yielded only a 13.3 percent improvement vs 2022.
A promising sign: the pace of new car sales showed a significant acceleration in Q3 with an increase of 21.1 percent YOY, versus last year’s Q3 numbers which showed a decline of 14.1 percent.
New to this Auto Outlook report: a more robust breakdown of the state’s new battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales and market health breakdown. The report now includes YTD and quarterly electric, hybrid, and PHEV sales numbers. Key figures: the state’s BEV market share increased to 21.5 percent during the first nine months of 2023. California’s total new BEV market share sales increased by half a percent from the first six months of this year.
While ICE-powered vehicles account for 64.6 percent of the state’s new vehicle sales share, sales were down from 71.6 percent in 2022. Sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell sales in the state accounted for a 35.4 percent share YTD (as compared with 11.6 percent in 2018).
“Meeting our customers’ needs, whether it’s continued demand for ICE vehicles, hybrids, or new EV options, is our top priority, and we are looking to expand our vehicle offerings.” says Tony Toohey, CNCDA Chairman and Owner of Auburn Toyota “As a local new car dealer, we want to offer our customers and community the variety of vehicle options they want at price points that meet their individual circumstances,” says Toohey.
Hybrids and Electric Vehicles California leads the way in the shift towards new auto technologies, leading BEV registrations nationwide, with almost 35 percent of all sales. The report also shows a 103 percent increase in BEV vehicle sales this year from franchised dealers. Direct-to-consumer sellers (i.e., Tesla, etc.) showed a 42 percent increase in sales YOY.
California’s BEV market share remains at just over 21 percent in the first nine months of 2023. This is a significant difference from the nation’s BEV market share, which reaches only 7.4 percent of sales, YTD. The Q3 report lists California’s top-performing BEV and PHEV makes and models. The top three selling BEV and PHEV models: Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, and the Chevy Bolt. Fourth place was captured by the Jeep Wrangler (the best-selling PHEV on the list).
While Tesla continues to be the BEV market share leader in California, new numbers show their lead diminishing as traditional automakers roll out new electric vehicle models. Tesla showed a significant decline in sales at an 8.9 percent loss in share (when comparing YTD ’22 to ’23 numbers). Mercedes and BMW show the highest increases of BEV sales in California, picking up 2.6 and 2.5 percent of the share, respectively.
The Q3 market share leaders for exclusively PHEV makes were Jeep (capturing 29.8 percent), Toyota (at 17.6 percent) followed by BMW (at 12.8 percent).
So far this year, Northern Californians remain the larger adopters of BEVs, capturing 25.7 percent of the market share, while Southern CA BEV sales reported 21.1 percent of registrations.
Model Segment Rankings California’s best-selling models for the first nine months in the primary segments remain the same as last quarter (and have increased/decreased their individual segment share by the following percents): Honda Civic (-.2), Toyota Camry (-.5), Tesla Model 3 (+2.4), Toyota Tacoma (-1.5), Ford F-Series (+.2), Toyota RAV4 (+.4), Toyota Highlander (-1.2), and the Tesla Model Y (-1.4).
Brand Market Share and Summary Toyota remains California’s market share leader, holding 15 percent amongst all vehicle brands, followed by Tesla at 13.5 percent, Honda at 9.5 percent, Ford at 7.8 percent, and Chevrolet at 6.8 percent. Registration numbers increased by over 20 percent for Rivian, Buick, Tesla, Honda, Audi, Acura, Volvo, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Hyundai, Genesis, and Land Rover.
The state’s registration numbers do not mirror the rest of the U.S., which reports Toyota and Ford as the top-selling brands at 12.2 and 12 percent (respectively), followed closely by Chevrolet at 11.3 percent.
Brands showing the most significant positive change in registration numbers for Q3 ’23 compared to Q3 ’22 were: Rivian (176.8 percent), Buick (44.6 percent), Tesla (38.5 percent, and Honda (34.7 percent). Brands underperforming from last year: Dodge (-24.6 percent), Ram (- 15.8 percent), and Jeep (-6.7 percent).
Market Share Trends by Segment SUV sales account for 53 percent of the California market in the first nine months of 2023, with non-luxury vehicles holding the majority share at 34 percent. This segment lost a point when compared to YTD 2022 numbers, while Luxury SUVs gained two points from last year at this time.
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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on CA’s new vehicle market, includes annual trends, a two-year perspective, vehicle powertrain dashboard, segment watch, the top models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Access the complete report at: www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA For 99 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers and their interests. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2022, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.6 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 136,000 people, paid $8.46 billion in sales tax, and donated $62.84 million to charitable and civic organizations. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with over 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Second Quarter 2023 Auto Outlook
CA 2Q 2023 Auto Market Recap: Registrations Surge Higher Than Expected Sold Vehicles Up 16.8% From Last Year
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SACRAMENTO, CA, July 19, 2023 – The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) releases its second quarter 2023 California Auto Outlook report today, showing an 11.6 percent increase in new vehicle registrations in the first six months of 2023 when compared to the same time last year. 2023 projections indicate registrations will reach 1.8 million units, as forecasted by Auto Outlook. This is an increase from the predicted 1.78 million from 1Q 2022, thus surpassing 2020-2022 reported figures (approaching 2019 numbers). CNCDA’s quarterly Auto Outlook Report data is provided and verified by Experian Automotive.
Continued pent-up demand is estimated at 700,000 units, approximately 40% of annual registrations. This “stored potential” is expected to offset any sales drag from softening vehicle affordability. This recovery in CA’s vehicle market has enough momentum to track even higher, with new vehicle sales predicted to grow almost certainly into 2024.
2Q 2023 is particularly noteworthy because it’s the third consecutive quarterly increase in registrations within the state since 2Q 2021, and it’s a significant bump: up 16.8 percent from 2Q 2022. For reference, last quarter’s numbers posted a 6.5 percent increase. When comparing YTD registration numbers from 2022 to 2023, registrations report at 905,752 vs 811,318 (11.6 percent increase).
“It’s a great time to purchase a new vehicle,” says Tony Toohey, CNCDA Chairman and Owner of Auburn Toyota. “We currently have rising inventories on the horizon, and we are happy to provide information to our customers about newly released traditional and electric vehicle models from our manufacturing partners,” says Toohey.
Hybrids and Electric Vehicles
The state’s BEV (battery electric vehicle) market share has exceeded 21 percent in the first half of 2023, well above the 16.4 percent reported for all of 2022. Hybrid units sold (including and excluding plug in) have tracked similar increases of .6 percent YTD each.
New registrations for BEVs sold at franchised dealerships experienced a significant growth of 125 percent in the first half of this year. As a result, franchised dealerships’ market share in the state’s new retail BEV market rose from 23.2 percent in the first half of 2022 to 32.8 percent so far this year. Registrations for BEVs sold by direct sellers saw a 40 percent increase from this time last year.
2Q 2023 showed that Northern Californians are more willing to adopt BEVs, as those vehicles captured 25.9 percent of the market share, while Southern CA BEV sales reported 20.9% of registrations.
Market Share Trends by Segment
The luxury SUV market share grew by three percent in 2023, hitting 20% of total units sold in the state YTD. The segment captured a one percent share from the non-luxury SUVs, pickups and vans, and the non-lux midsize and large car segments, respectively.
Model Segment Rankings
Toyota remained a brand leader, providing four of the eight best-selling vehicles in the primary segments for 2Q 2023. Toyota’s Camry, Tacoma, RAV4, and Highlander topped the Mid-Size and Large Cars, Comp./Mid Size Pickup, Compact SUV, and 3 Row Mid-Size SUV spots. The Honda Civic was the best-selling Small Car, the Tesla Model 3 topped the Near Luxury Car, the Ford F-Series was the best-selling Full Size Pickup, and the Tesla Model Y was the top Luxury Compact SUV.
Brand Market Share and Summary
Toyota also held the top of California’s market share at 14.7 percent amongst all vehicle brands, followed by Tesla at 13.6 percent, Honda at 9.3 percent, Ford at 8.1 percent, and Chevrolet at 6.9 percent. As the Golden State continues to pave its own way, CA’s numbers differ notably from the rest of the U.S., which reports Ford as the top-selling brand at 12.2 percent, followed closely by Toyota at 12 percent, then by Chevrolet at 11.1 percent.
New this quarter, Experian Automotive has provided detailed sales data for a previously named “Other” category in registrations by brand, which included smaller startup brands. YTD, the following brands saw more than a 22 percent increase in units sold: Rivian, Polestar, Genesis, Tesla, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Audi, and Hyundai.
Regional Variances
All registrations from cars and light trucks between Northern and Southern CA markets were up. The SF Bay Area regional market captured 14.1 percent of the statewide total, followed by LA and Orange Counties at 8.9 percent, then by San Diego County at 5.4 percent.
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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on CA’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a two-year perspective, segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Access the complete report at: www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 99 years, California New Car Dealers Association has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, and provide automotive products, parts, service, and repairs. In 2022, CA’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.6 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 136,000 people, paid $8.46 billion in sales tax, and donated $62.84 million to charitable and civic organizations. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with over 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases First Quarter 2023 Auto Outlook
CA 1Q 2023 Auto Market Recap: New Sales Show Positive Numbers; EV, Overall 2023 Registrations Expected to Grow
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May 15, 2023, SACRAMENTO – The California New Car Dealers Association released its first quarter 2023 California Auto Outlook report today, showing significant improvement in new vehicle registrations compared to 1Q 2022 numbers.
Overall, 2023 projections indicate that registrations are expected to increase roughly 6.9 percent more than last year (just shy of 2021 sales numbers), despite increasing economic uncertainty in the state and nationwide. CNCDA’s quarterly Auto Outlook data is sourced from Experian Automotive.
Report highlights reflect that pent-up demand (due to supply chain and inventory shortages) kept new car sales somewhat insulated from economic dips felt in other sectors. As noted in our previous report, 4Q 2022 was a bright spot last year, and 1Q 2023 is proving to continue this upward sales trend, with a 5.8 percent increase (450,000 registrations) YTD versus 1Q 2022, at 425,216 registrations posted. Much of this increase is directly attributed to the recent large volume of fleet sales in California.
Additionally, as franchised dealers roll out new electric vehicle models from their respective original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Californians’ appetite for Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) continues to grow. The new electric and hybrid/ electric vehicle market share sales grew staggeringly last quarter, posting the highest percentages California has ever seen at 34.2 percent of the market share in 1Q 2023 (up from 31.1 percent in all of 2022).
The recent increase in ZEV market share is likely due to more 2023 ZEV models available and Californians’ willingness to shift to and adopt electric and hybrid vehicles. Unsurprisingly, CA again places first for ZEV sales at 24.2 percent, while the next closest state is OR, coming in at roughly 17 percent for ZEV retail vehicle registrations last quarter.
However, as franchised dealers continue to offer more electric and hybrid options to CA’s motoring public, their market share is steadily rising. Last quarter franchised new car dealers showed a noteworthy 140 percent increase in ZEV sales YTD, while direct-to-consumer EV sellers (such as Tesla) were up only 15 percent YTD in CA.
“It’s an exciting time for franchised new car dealers in California. We are getting new inventory, and the latest ZEV models are rolling out from the mainstay manufacturers. It’s exciting to offer the types of cars our customers have been asking for,” said CNCDA Chairman Tony Toohey, owner of Auburn Toyota. “Each new car dealership in California has roughly 95 employees, so when a consumer buys from a dealer, they directly support the livelihoods of hard-working people and their families. This is why we value our returning customers tremendously.”
Brand Market Share
Toyota held the top of California’s market share last quarter at 15.3 percent amongst all vehicle brands, followed by Tesla at 11.8 percent, Ford at 8.9 percent, Honda at 8.7 percent, and Chevrolet at 7.7 percent.
Interestingly, Chevrolet had an outstanding first quarter of 2023, with a 47.1 percent increase in registrations. Followed by Genesis at 41.8 percent, Buick at 39.7 percent increase, Audi with a 38 percent increase, and the fifth-place spot was taken by Porsche, posting a 31.6 percent increase.
On the other hand, Californian’s love affair with Tesla may have already reached a plateau. The report reveals that the company posted only a 10.6 percent increase for 1Q 2023 compared to registrations for the same time last year. With more OEMs offering newer ZEVs this year and next, Tesla registrations in CA may continue to stall or even decline.
Fleet and Retail Market Share
Notably, the increase in California’s YTD registrations was primarily due to fleet car sales which were up 47.0 percent. Fleet light trucks were up 35.3 percent, and retail light trucks were up 2.2 percent. The only decline was in retail car sales, down by 1.7 percent compared to 2022 YTD.
Regional Variances
SF Bay Area’s new vehicle market showed very promising signs of growth. For the first time in a year, the region showed positive sales, reporting an impressive 9.8 percent increase from this time last year. The Southern California overall market is nearly identical to last year’s sales, posting a .1 percent increase. Northern California registrations only rose 2.6 percent YTD.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on the state’s new vehicle market and includes annual trends, a two-year perspective, segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Access the complete report at: www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 99 years, California New Car Dealers Association has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, but also provide customers with automotive products, parts, service, and repairs. CA’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.6 million new cars and trucks in 2022 and employed more than 136,000 Californians.
In 2022, new car dealers significantly contributed to CA’s economy, paying $8.46 billion in sales tax and giving $62.84 million in donations to charitable and civic organizations. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with nearly 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Fourth Quarter 2022 Auto Outlook
CA 2022 Year-End Auto Market Recap: Supply Chain Issues, EV Sales Spike, and More… 2023 Outlook Predicts New Vehicle Registrations to Increase
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SACRAMENTO, CA, February 7, 2023 – The California New Car Dealers Association released its fourth quarter 2022 California Auto Outlook report today. The report outlines 2022 vehicle registration data and estimates projected 2023 sales in California’s auto market.
The major takeaways: Supply chain issues persisted throughout the year resulting in vehicle production cutbacks in numbers higher than anticipated. While vehicle registrations were lower than in 2021, they didn’t drop to 2020 pandemic-year levels. The fourth quarter was a bright spot in 2022, seeing a 13.6 percent increase in new light vehicle registrations versus the same period in 2021.
Predictions for 2023 include increased new vehicle registrations to 5.5 percent, approaching 1.76 million. Additionally, due to pent-up demand and low vehicle inventory availability since the pandemic, an estimated 43 percent of sales have been delayed. This along with transaction prices lowering to match supply levels should result in increased registrations for 2023. However, inflation, lingering supply chain issues, and increasing interest rates are expected to tamper these numbers.
A positive in California’s 2022 new vehicle market: sales of electric vehicles, with an estimated increase in market share of 17.1 percent. While vehicle pricing was a major concern in 2022, sales of pure EVs increased by over 50 percent from 2021. California is clearly doing its part to increase EV sales.
Notably, the hybrid market share also continues to steadily grow, despite overall declining sales.
Finally, while Tesla had the top two selling vehicles last year, Toyota retained its crown as the market share leader for vehicle brands in the Golden State.
Year-to-date, new vehicle sales in California dipped further than nationwide numbers, at 10.2 percent. Comparatively, nationwide sales dropped 7.9 percent in 2022.
Year over year, luxury & sports cars and the luxury car market shares increased by 3 percent, taking these points from the small car market in California. Overall, for 2022, the California hybrid/ EV market share held at 31.1 percent.
“With ZEV product announcements every day, we’re seeing the latest and greatest in technology and innovation in new car makes and models by the major automakers. As dealers, we are eagerly waiting to receive these cars and get them into the hands of our longstanding customers. California drivers want these cars now,” said California New Car Dealers Association Chairman, Tony Toohey, Owner of Auburn Toyota.
“Dealers know the hybrid/ EV demand in California is increasing and we are ready to help our manufacturers roll out these vehicles to meet the consumers’ needs,” said Toohey.
Brand Market Share
Toyota remained at the top of California’s market share in 2022 at 17.3 percent, followed by Tesla at 11.2 percent, Ford at 8.4 percent, Honda at 7.9 percent, and Chevrolet at 6.8 percent.
Interestingly, Californian’s appetite for Tesla vehicles is much larger than the nationwide average, which accounts for only 3.5 percent of the brand market share. Tesla, Genesis, Cadillac, Mercedes, and Kia saw increased new vehicle registrations in California year over year, while all other brands saw declines. Fleet and Retail Market Share
The California fleet market in 2022 fared better than the retail market, with fleet car sales down only 15.1 percent (compared with retail sales down 16.1 percent). While retail light truck sales were down 9.1 percent, fleet light trucks gained 9.3 percentage points.
Primary Segment Leaders and Model Rankings
Leading luxury car and light truck brands in the Golden State included Tesla, Mercedes, and BMW. Non-luxury car brand leaders were Toyota, Honda, and Nissan in 2022. The leading non-luxury light truck brands were Toyota, Ford, and Chevrolet.
The Tesla Model Y was the top-selling light truck in 2022, with 87,257 registrations (7.6 percent of the market share). Second place: the Toyota RAV4, with 59,794 units sold. The Ford F-Series placed third and was the top-selling full-size pickup truck at 40,232 registrations. The top-selling compact/mid-size pickup truck in California was the Toyota Tacoma, holding 46.2 percent of the share.
The top-selling passenger car model in the state is the Tesla Model 3 with 78,934 registrations, the Toyota Camry came in second with 55,967 registrations (capturing 10.2 percent), followed by the Toyota Corolla at 39,865 registrations.
Regional Variances
The Southern California car market fell 17.1 percent as compared to Northern California dipping 13.9 percent. As with previous quarters, the San Francisco Bay regional market was the most insulated from a decline in sales, falling only 7.2 percent in 2022.
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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian.
The report provides comprehensive information on the state’s new vehicle market. The report includes annual trends, a two-year perspective, segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. The complete report can be accessed on CNCDA’s website at: www.cncda.org
About CNCDA
For 99 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, but also provide customers with automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. Our members sold more than 2 million new cars and trucks in 2019 and employed more than 140,000 Californians, significantly contributing to our state’s economy. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with more than 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Third Quarter Auto Outlook
Contact: Autumn Heacox, Communications and Marketing Director: aheacox@cncda.org, (916) 441-2599
Economic Uncertainty Results in Reduced New Car Sales Statewide Toyota Holds California Market Share Lead as EV Sales Continue to Rise
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Nov. 7, 2022 (SACRAMENTO) – Franchised new car dealers in California are trying to catch up with high demand despite a decline in new car sales in the third quarter of 2022. Click here to view the full report.
The weakened economy, supply chain issues, labor availability, and chip shortages all lead us to predict that new vehicle registrations in 2022 will only hit 1.68 million by the end of the year (lower than we anticipated last quarter).
Year-to-date, new vehicle sales in the United States dropped 13 percent as compared with 2021. Comparatively, California’s decline in sales slipped 16.1 percent when compared to the first nine months of 2021. While Q3 posted a statewide double-digit light vehicle registration decline for the fourth quarter in a row, that streak is expected to end as we reach the end of 2022 and anticipate an increase in these registrations.
Year over year, SUVs (both luxury and non-luxury) have increased market share by three percent, increasing from 48 percent in Q3 2021 to 51 percent in Q3 2022. The estimated electric vehicle (EV) market share hit 15.8 percent. Overall, this year the hybrid/ EV market share is at 29.9 percent.
“As California’s economy remains uncertain, statewide franchised new car dealers are encouraged by the continued strong consumer demand for vehicles of all makes and models,” said California New Car Dealers Association Chairman, John Oh, General Manager, Lexus of Westminster.
“Our dealers are anxiously awaiting an inventory influx of both internal combustion engine and electric vehicles from our manufacturers. We have long-standing relationships with our loyal customers and we’re ready and willing to help get them the vehicles they desire today. We simply need our manufacturers to make and send us more cars,” said Oh.
Brand Market Share
Toyota remains a vital mainstay in California, continuing to capture the largest segment of new car sales market share at 17.4 percent, followed by Tesla, then Ford rounding out the top three brands in California. Both Tesla and Genesis increased new vehicle registrations for Q3, while all other brands saw declines. Hybrids excluding plug-in registrations also rose year-to-date up to 11.2 percent; however, plug-in hybrid registrations declined slightly from last year, only reaching 2.9 percent of registrations so far this year. Segment Market Share
Interestingly, midsize vehicles are performing much better than the overall market only down 13.2 percent while the industry average sits at 21.6 percent lower than last year. Two-row SUVs have been gaining market share in their segment, up 3.3 percent from 2019. Light trucks accounted for 68.3 percent of the California new vehicle market compared to 78.9 percent in the Nation.
Model and Brand Rankings
The Tesla Model Y remains the top-selling light truck in the California market with 61,544 registrations this year. In second place: the Toyota RAV4 with 44,738 units sold. The top-selling passenger car model YTD in the state is the Tesla Model 3 with 56,851 registrations and the Toyota Camry came in second with 40,350 registrations capturing 10.2 percent of the market share. As with last quarter, the state’s top-selling mainstays were impacted by inventory shortages.
Regional Variances
Both Northern and Southern California performed similarly in terms of the percentage of change year to date, with percentage declines of 16.2 and 16.8, respectively. As with last quarter, the San Francisco Bay market was least affected by the decline in sales, but only marginally showing a percentage drop of 13.3 while LA and Orange counties declined by 17.9 percent and San Diego dropped by 14.5 percent.
The California Auto Outlook Third Quarter 2022 Market Report provides comprehensive information on the state’s new vehicle market. The report includes annual trends, two-year perspective, segment watch, including the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. The complete report can be accessed here.
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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian.
About CNCDA
For more than 95 years, California New Car Dealers Association has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, but also provide customers with automotive products, parts, service and repair. Our members sold more than 2 million new cars and trucks in 2019 and employed more than 140,000 Californians, significantly contributing to our state’s economy. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with more than 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Second Quarter Auto Outlook
Contact: Autumn Heacox, Communications and Marketing Director: aheacox@cncda.org
Economic Turmoil Allows Car Dealers to Replenish Supply, Fulfill Needs Californian’s Desire for Electric Vehicles Drives Demand
SACRAMENTO, CA – As expected the high pent-up demand for both new and used vehicles is holding strong and will provide a boost in California’s vehicle market despite a weakening economy.
While the current economic impact of low unemployment and high inflation is felt across nearly every industry in the nation, the demand for both new and used vehicles remains strong in the State. While lower economic growth and weakening consumer affordability is hitting most industries hard, new vehicles registrations in California are expected to only soften a bit in the coming months as we expect about 1.8 million new vehicles to be sold in the state during 2022, down slightly from 2021 but better than the 1.64 million in 2020.
Although vehicle sales in the United States dropped 18.3 percent, California’s decline in sales only fell 17.9 percent for 2022. Interestingly, in California, domestic car registrations only fell 6.3 percent as compared to an 11 percent decline nationwide. Similarly, California’s light truck registrations also fell by less than U.S. numbers (14.6 percent vs 15.9 percent) while increasing in market share by 2.7 points year-to- date.
“As the vehicle market continues to navigate high demand, chip shortages, supply chain issues and production problems, the current economy could allow dealerships to help replenish their inventories as manufacturing of new vehicles is able to catch-up with demand, California New Car Dealers Association Chairman, John Oh, General Manager of Lexus of Westminster. “We are thankful California isn’t being hit as deeply as other regions in the nation across all vehicle registration sectors. Additionally, we are seeing some increased interest in the electric vehicle market that are very promising.”
Brand Market Share
While most brand registrations saw declines, both Tesla and Genesis were able to capture the windfall, indicating that California consumers are increasingly interested in purchasing alternative powered vehicles. Electric vehicle sales reached the highest numbers reported in the last five years, hitting 15.1 percent year-to-date—a sharp increase from last year’s 9.5% total. Tesla registrations increased by 82.2 percent and Genesis saw an increase of 53 percent. Kia, Mercedes, BMW, Ford, and Subaru saw less than 15 percent declines. Toyota continues to lead both the non-luxury car and light truck brand market share by 34.5% and 21.1%, respectively.
Segment Market Share
Larger, family-friendly vehicles continue their reign as those most sought by consumers, bringing their market share to 35 percent, down one percent from last year. Small cars saw a larger decline, hitting 11 percent, down from 16 percent last year. Luxury SUVs saw a two percent increase from last year, making up 17 percent of sales, with non-luxury mid and large sized cars remaining relatively stagnant at 9 percent, and the luxury and sports car segment increasing to 11 percent.
Model and Brand Rankings
The Tesla Model Y reigns as the top selling car in the California market with 42,320 registrations so far this year. In second place: the Tesla Model 3 with 38,993 units sold, further indicating the statewide demand for EVs. New registrations of the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry and Corolla, the state’s top-selling mainstays, were impacted by inventory shortages but still remained at the top of their segment categories.
Regional Variances
The San Francisco Bay market seems to be the least affected by the decline in sales, posing the smallest statewide percentage drop at 12.9 percent. Overall statewide sales in the first two quarters of 2022 dropped 16.4 percent lower than in 2021. Northern California was slightly more insulated with a 15.9 percent drop to Southern California’s 16.6 percent.
The California Auto Outlook Second Quarter 2022 Market Report provides comprehensive information on the state’s new vehicle market. The report includes annual trends, two-year perspective, segment watch, including the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. The complete Q2 2022 report can be accessed here.
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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian.
About CNCDA
For more than 95 years, California New Car Dealers Association has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, but also provide customers with automotive products, parts, service and repair. Our members sold more than 2 million new cars and trucks in 2019 and employed more than 140,000 Californians, significantly contributing to our state’s economy. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with more than 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
