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California New Car Dealers Association Releases Third Quarter Auto Outlook

Contact: Autumn Heacox, Communications and Marketing Director: aheacox@cncda.org, (916) 441-2599

Economic Uncertainty Results in Reduced New Car Sales Statewide
Toyota Holds California Market Share Lead as EV Sales Continue to Rise

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Nov. 7, 2022 (SACRAMENTO)
– Franchised new car dealers in California are trying to catch up with high demand despite a decline in new car sales in the third quarter of 2022.  Click here to view the full report.

The weakened economy, supply chain issues, labor availability, and chip shortages all lead us to predict that new vehicle registrations in 2022 will only hit 1.68 million by the end of the year (lower than we anticipated last quarter).

Year-to-date, new vehicle sales in the United States dropped 13 percent as compared with 2021. Comparatively, California’s decline in sales slipped 16.1 percent when compared to the first nine months of 2021. While Q3 posted a statewide double-digit light vehicle registration decline for the fourth quarter in a row, that streak is expected to end as we reach the end of 2022 and anticipate an increase in these registrations.

Year over year, SUVs (both luxury and non-luxury) have increased market share by three percent, increasing from 48 percent in Q3 2021 to 51 percent in Q3 2022. The estimated electric vehicle (EV) market share hit 15.8 percent. Overall, this year the hybrid/ EV market share is at 29.9 percent.

“As California’s economy remains uncertain, statewide franchised new car dealers are encouraged by the continued strong consumer demand for vehicles of all makes and models,” said California New Car Dealers Association Chairman, John Oh, General Manager, Lexus of Westminster.

“Our dealers are anxiously awaiting an inventory influx of both internal combustion engine and electric vehicles from our manufacturers. We have long-standing relationships with our loyal customers and we’re ready and willing to help get them the vehicles they desire today. We simply need our manufacturers to make and send us more cars,” said Oh.

Brand Market Share

Toyota remains a vital mainstay in California, continuing to capture the largest segment of new car sales market share at 17.4 percent, followed by Tesla, then Ford rounding out the top three brands in California. Both Tesla and Genesis increased new vehicle registrations for Q3, while all other brands saw declines. Hybrids excluding plug-in registrations also rose year-to-date up to 11.2 percent; however, plug-in hybrid registrations declined slightly from last year, only reaching 2.9 percent of registrations so far this year.

Segment Market Share

Interestingly, midsize vehicles are performing much better than the overall market only down 13.2 percent while the industry average sits at 21.6 percent lower than last year. Two-row SUVs have been gaining market share in their segment, up 3.3 percent from 2019.  Light trucks accounted for 68.3 percent of the California new vehicle market compared to 78.9 percent in the Nation.

Model and Brand Rankings

The Tesla Model Y remains the top-selling light truck in the California market with 61,544 registrations this year. In second place: the Toyota RAV4 with 44,738 units sold.  The top-selling passenger car model YTD in the state is the Tesla Model 3 with 56,851 registrations and the Toyota Camry came in second with 40,350 registrations capturing 10.2 percent of the market share. As with last quarter, the state’s top-selling mainstays were impacted by inventory shortages.

Regional Variances

Both Northern and Southern California performed similarly in terms of the percentage of change year to date, with percentage declines of 16.2 and 16.8, respectively. As with last quarter, the San Francisco Bay market was least affected by the decline in sales, but only marginally showing a percentage drop of 13.3 while LA and Orange counties declined by 17.9 percent and San Diego dropped by 14.5 percent.

The California Auto Outlook Third Quarter 2022 Market Report provides comprehensive information on the state’s new vehicle market. The report includes annual trends, two-year perspective, segment watch, including the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. The complete report can be accessed here.

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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian.

About CNCDA

For more than 95 years, California New Car Dealers Association has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, but also provide customers with automotive products, parts, service and repair. Our members sold more than 2 million new cars and trucks in 2019 and employed more than 140,000 Californians, significantly contributing to our state’s economy. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with more than 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy. 

California New Car Dealers Association Releases Second Quarter Auto Outlook

Contact: Autumn Heacox, Communications and Marketing Director: aheacox@cncda.org

Economic Turmoil Allows Car Dealers to Replenish Supply, Fulfill Needs
Californian’s Desire for Electric Vehicles Drives Demand

SACRAMENTO, CA – As expected the high pent-up demand for both new and used vehicles is holding strong and will provide a boost in California’s vehicle market despite a weakening economy.   

While the current economic impact of low unemployment and high inflation is felt across nearly every industry in the nation, the demand for both new and used vehicles remains strong in the State. While lower economic growth and weakening consumer affordability is hitting most industries hard, new vehicles registrations in California are expected to only soften a bit in the coming months as we expect about 1.8 million new vehicles to be sold in the state during 2022, down slightly from 2021 but better than the 1.64 million in 2020.

Although vehicle sales in the United States dropped 18.3 percent, California’s decline in sales only fell 17.9 percent for 2022. Interestingly, in California, domestic car registrations only fell 6.3 percent as compared to an 11 percent decline nationwide. Similarly, California’s light truck registrations also fell by less than U.S. numbers (14.6 percent vs 15.9 percent) while increasing in market share by 2.7 points year-to- date.

“As the vehicle market continues to navigate high demand, chip shortages, supply chain issues and production problems, the current economy could allow dealerships to help replenish their inventories as manufacturing of new vehicles is able to catch-up with demand, California New Car Dealers Association Chairman, John Oh, General Manager of Lexus of Westminster. “We are thankful California isn’t being hit as deeply as other regions in the nation across all vehicle registration sectors. Additionally, we are seeing some increased interest in the electric vehicle market that are very promising.”

Brand Market Share

While most brand registrations saw declines, both Tesla and Genesis were able to capture the windfall, indicating that California consumers are increasingly interested in purchasing alternative powered vehicles. Electric vehicle sales reached the highest numbers reported in the last five years, hitting 15.1 percent year-to-date—a sharp increase from last year’s 9.5% total.  Tesla registrations increased by 82.2 percent and Genesis saw an increase of 53 percent. Kia, Mercedes, BMW, Ford, and Subaru saw less than 15 percent declines. Toyota continues to lead both the non-luxury car and light truck brand market share by 34.5% and 21.1%, respectively.

Segment Market Share

Larger, family-friendly vehicles continue their reign as those most sought by consumers, bringing their market share to 35 percent, down one percent from last year. Small cars saw a larger decline, hitting 11 percent, down from 16 percent last year. Luxury SUVs saw a two percent increase from last year, making up 17 percent of sales, with non-luxury mid and large sized cars remaining relatively stagnant at 9 percent, and the luxury and sports car segment increasing to 11 percent.  

Model and Brand Rankings

The Tesla Model Y reigns as the top selling car in the California market with 42,320 registrations so far this year. In second place: the Tesla Model 3 with 38,993 units sold, further indicating the statewide demand for EVs. New registrations of the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry and Corolla, the state’s top-selling mainstays, were impacted by inventory shortages but still remained at the top of their segment categories.

Regional Variances

The San Francisco Bay market seems to be the least affected by the decline in sales, posing the smallest statewide percentage drop at 12.9 percent. Overall statewide sales in the first two quarters of 2022 dropped 16.4 percent lower than in 2021. Northern California was slightly more insulated with a 15.9 percent drop to Southern California’s 16.6 percent.

The California Auto Outlook Second Quarter 2022 Market Report provides comprehensive information on the state’s new vehicle market. The report includes annual trends, two-year perspective, segment watch, including the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. The complete Q2 2022 report can be accessed here.

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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian.

About CNCDA

For more than 95 years, California New Car Dealers Association has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, but also provide customers with automotive products, parts, service and repair. Our members sold more than 2 million new cars and trucks in 2019 and employed more than 140,000 Californians, significantly contributing to our state’s economy. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with more than 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy. 

California New Car Dealers Association Releases First Quarter Auto Outlook

California New Car Dealers Assn. releases “California Auto Outlook” for first quarter of 2022, findings include that total new vehicle registrations dropped 13.8% compared to first quarter of 2021 — 493,160 total registrations in 2021 compared to 425,216 in 2022; also reports “electric vehicles, hybrids and plug-in hybrids have captured a record-high 28.3% market share in California – up 5% from last year” with the Tesla Model Y being the top seller with 21,812 registrations.
Contact: Emma Manoukian, emanoukian@bcfpublicaffairs.com.

The full Q1 California Auto Outlook, containing a detailed breakdown of auto sales, including brand comparisons, segment totals, and more, can be found by clicking here.

California New Car Dealers Association Releases Third Quarter Auto Outlook

Supply Restrictions Limit New Vehicle Sales

Electric Vehicles Continue a Strong Rise in Sales, Mirrored by Expanding Options

SACRAMENTO, CA – While demand for vehicles continues to increase to pre-pandemic levels, supply bottlenecks are preventing a full recovery. Earlier estimates hoped for a slightly stronger recovery, with new vehicle sales expected to approach 2 million for the year. The ongoing microchip issue has led to a more bearish outlook, trimming expectations closer to 1.85 million for the year. Despite the slightly leaner estimation, sales are still expected to surpass 2020 numbers by nearly 13 percent.

“The impacts of the ongoing microchip shortage certainly can’t be ignored, but California’s new car dealers are working tirelessly to ensure that the needs of our motoring public are met,” said California New Car Dealers Association Chairperson, Mark Normandin, owner of Normandin Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram FIAT. “Despite this challenge, with patience from consumers, the nature of California’s competitive automotive marketplace has allowed our industry to continue providing the vehicles sought by buyers, with the same quality of service they have come to expect.”

Major Trends at a Glance

Electric vehicles continued their strong emergence, as consumer demand increases alongside new models entering the market. This week’s LA Auto Show highlighted this growing market, with automakers unveiling an assortment of new electric vehicles in their model lineups. Manufacturers are racing to establish themselves with their consumer bases, as more buyers look towards electrification. This comes as EVs increased their market share in Q3 to 8.3 percent, a full 2 percent over 2020.

Along with EVs, hybrids also showed a strong presence continuing their longtime growth, now commanding 10.3 percent of the market, and plug-in hybrids joined the trend, increasing to 3.3 percent in total sales. Altogether, hybrid and electric sales have expanded to nearly 22 percent of the market share.

The LA Auto Show unveilings also mimicked another growing trend among consumers, the continued desire for SUVs. In the first three quarters of 2021, nonluxury SUVs made of 34 percent of all new vehicle sales, with pickups and vans a distant second at 17 percent.

Despite sales bottlenecks, the new vehicle market continued its strong recovery from last year. As consumer demand remains low for many products, car buyers are returning to dealerships eagerly searching for their next vehicle. Yet, while demand shows a major comeback, the reality of the COVID pandemic remains, with exterior factors continuing to impact global supply chains.

The full Q3 California Auto Outlook can be found by clicking here.

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California Auto Outlook, is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company specializing in the analysis of statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian.

About CNCDA

For more than 95 years, CNCDA has represented the interests of California’s franchised new car dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles, but also provide customers with automotive products, parts, service and repair. Our members sold more than 2 million new cars and trucks in 2019 and employed more than 140,000 Californians, significantly contributing to our state’s economy. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car and truck dealers—with more than 1,100 members—CNCDA serves its members by providing legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy. 

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