Q2 2024 CA Auto Outlook Report: Has Tesla Peaked in CA? Sales Slip 17% YTD; New Vehicle Registrations Decline Slightly; Ioniq 5 Steals Third Place in EVs
Click on the image to view the report.
SACRAMENTO, CA, July 18, 2024— Today, the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook covering the first half of 2024. The report summarizes California’s new vehicle registrations and predicts anticipated yearly sales. For accurate reporting, please cite Experian Automotive as the data source for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.
Key Highlights California’s new light vehicle registrations fell by .7 percent YTD compared to last year, totaling 892,363. Despite this decline, the State is on track to hit a forecasted 1.8 million new vehicle registrations by year-end. Higher interest rates and inflation are squeezing consumer budgets. Still, the aging vehicle fleet (at a record all-time high) and technology and safety upgrades in new models are keeping the market resilient.
Tesla’s future appears to be dwindling as the brand’s sales continue to decline in the Golden State; registrations are down a significant 17 percent YTD (as compared to last year). While Tesla’s Model Y remains the top-selling car in the State, Tesla sales may have peaked. This new data marks the brand’s third consecutive quarter with registration declines (dipping 24.1 percent in Q2 2024, 7.8 percent in Q1 2024, and 9.8 percent in Q4 2023).
In stark contrast, mainstay brands like Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford are on the upswing, with significant gains and excitement around new EV models that Californians seem eager to adopt. This year, Toyota’s BEV registrations rose 108.1 percent, and Hyundai’s BEV registrations rose 65.7 percent. Notably, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 stole third place (from Tesla’s Model X) of the top-selling EVs in California YTD, with 7,191 registrations.
Ford BEV sales rose by 26.4 percent, and the Mustang Mach-E became the fifth most-sold EV YTD. This surge underscores how the State’s franchised new car dealers are expertly navigating the evolving market, driving consumer enthusiasm with trusted, high-performing brands.
“It’s an exciting time to be a franchised car dealer in California. With new competitive EV models and the latest ICE options, we’re able to meet diverse customers’ needs and provide the support they want from their local dealership,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “Our dealers are trusted community partners, providing Californians with high-quality, reliable vehicles- whether electric, traditional, or anything in between.”
Regardless of the powertrain, Toyota remains California’s top brand. With 150,964 registrations and 16.9 percent of the market share (a 2.1 point increase YTD from 2023), Toyota continues to lead the market.
Vehicle Powertrain Dashboard The report’s vehicle powertrain dashboard details the State’s BEV, hybrid, and PHEV sales and market health. California leads the nation in BEV registrations, with BEVs accounting for 21.4 percent of sales year-to-date. Thirty-three percent of nationwide BEV sales took place in California. The U.S. BEV market share is far less substantial, posting 7.5 percent YTD.
Additionally, after six months of declines, California’s BEV market share rose to 21.9 percent from 20.9 percent last quarter. The State’s hybrid registrations showed promise, jumping to 13.2 percent, and the PHEV market share remained steady at 3.4 percent this year.
In the first half of 2024, combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in the Golden State accounted for 38 percent of the market share. Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 62 percent of registrations.
California’s franchised new car and truck dealers account for over 67 percent of combined sales for all alternative powertrain types this year, demonstrating consumer confidence in local dealerships and mainstay brands. This trend is evident in the sales of BEVs by franchised dealerships, which have surged by 27 percent (while direct sellers, such as Tesla and Rivian, saw a 12.3 percent drop).
Model Segment Rankings Unchanged from last quarter, California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q2 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
Brand Market Share and Summary Tesla, the second best-selling brand in California with 102,106 registrations YTD, is facing mounting challenges. Its market share dipped 2.3 points from last year, and Q2 2024 registrations plummeted 24.1 percent compared to Q2 2023. Tesla’s allure seems to be wearing off, signaling potential trouble for the direct-to-consumer manufacturer.
Honda also reported an impressive 12.9 percent jump YTD (reaching 94,939 registrations). As reported last quarter, the top three passenger cars sold were the Toyota Camry, the Honda Civic, and the Tesla Model 3. The top three light trucks were the Tesla Model Y, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V.
Five brands in the State have improved registrations by more than 10 percent this year. These brands include Rivian (76.7 percent), Dodge (43.1 percent), Lexus (25.6 percent), Lincoln (23.3 percent), and Buick (19.5 percent).
Regional Variances Northern California’s BEV market share was 24.9 percent in the first half of this year, while Southern California’s share was 22.1 percent.
Specifically, light vehicle (non-fleet) registrations in N. and S. California showed declines of 3.3 and .1 percents, respectively. Regionally, the Bay Area posted a 3.2 percent decline, LA and Orange Counties increased slightly by .1 percent, and San Diego County’s sales increased by 1.6 percent, YTD.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the data source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a vehicle powertrain dashboard, a segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.77 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 138,807 people, paid $8.74 billion in sales tax, and donated $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with nearly 1,200 members— and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
Historic PAGA Reform Approved by Legislature
Agreement Between Business, Community and Labor Groups Will Create a Better, Fairer System for Workers and Employers
Contact: Kathy Fairbanks, (916) 813-1010
Sacramento – Today, the Fix PAGA coalition, representing non-profits, social justice advocates, family farmers, health care providers and businesses, applauded final legislative passage of SB 92 (Umberg) and AB 2288 (Kalra) to reform California’s broken Private Attorneys General Act (PAGA).
“This package of reforms will have a tremendous positive impact on California employers while preserving strong labor protections for employees,” said Jennifer Barrera, President & CEO, California Chamber of Commerce. “We are proud to help deliver this meaningful reform to minimize egregious shakedown lawsuits against employers. We thank Governor Newsom, Senate President pro Tempore McGuire, Assembly Speaker Rivas and all legislators for passing this historic agreement.”
Taken together, the two bills reform PAGA to ensure workers retain a strong tool to resolve labor claims and receive fair compensation, while limiting the shakedown lawsuits that hurt employers and employees.
“PAGA has been broken for decades,” said Brian Maas, President, California New Car Dealers Association and proponent of the PAGA reform initiative that is eligible for the November ballot. “This reform package addresses the major problems in the law while also protecting workers. We applaud the legislature for passing these reforms and Governor Newsom for getting the agreement over the finish line. We will now uphold our agreement to withdraw our ballot measure.”
A recent report found that since 2013 there have been nearly $10 billion in PAGA court case awards, but due to significant attorney fees, workers receive only a small portion of these awards. PAGA hurts virtually every industry and employer in California, including non-profits, local governments, family-run businesses and others.
The core elements of the reform package are:
Employee Share of Penalty
Increases share employees receive from any penalty from 25% to 35%.
Standing
Requires the employee (plaintiff) to personally experience the alleged violations brought in a claim.
Alleged violations must have occurred within the last year (presently, there is no time limitation).
Penalty
Caps Penalties: For employers who proactively take steps to comply with the Labor Code before receiving a notice, the maximum penalty that can be awarded is 15 percent of the applicable penalty amount.
Caps Penalties: For employers who take steps to fix policies and practices after receiving a PAGA notice, the maximum penalty that can be awarded is 30 percent of the applicable penalty amount.
Reduces the maximum penalty where the alleged violation was brief or where it is a wage statement violation that did not cause confusion or economic harm to the employee (i.e. misspelling of company name or forgetting to add “Inc.” on the pay statement).
Levels the playing field for employers who pay weekly by ensuring a penalty is adjusted. Presently, such employers are penalized at twice the amount because the penalty accrues on a per pay period basis.
Addresses derivative claims.
Creates a new penalty ($200 per pay period) if an employer acted maliciously, fraudulently, or oppressively.
Employer Right to Cure
Expands which Labor Code sections can be cured, so employees are made whole quickly.
Protects small employers by providing a more robust right to cure process through the state labor department (Labor and Workforce Development Agency) to reduce litigation and costs.
Provides an opportunity for early resolution in court for employers.
Strengthening Enforcement Agency
The Administration will pursue a trailer bill to give the California Department of Industrial Relations (DIR) the ability to expedite hiring and filling vacancies to improve and expedite enforcement of employee labor claims.
Judicial Discretion (Manageability)
Codifies that a court may limit both the scope of claims and evidence presented at trial.
Injunctive Relief
Allows for injunctive relief.
“Our members are frequent targets of exploitative PAGA lawsuits that jeopardize the services we provide to Californians with disabilities,” said Barry Jardini, Executive Director, California Disability Services Association. “With these reforms our members will be better able to focus on the services we provide rather than spending money defending themselves in court.”
“Small businesses throughout the state have been targeted by frivolous PAGA lawsuits for decades, even forcing some restaurants to shut down,” saidJot Condie, President & CEO, California Restaurant Association. “This is strong reform that will help small businesses and we are proud to help make it happen.”
“The abusive litigation that PAGA has allowed has contributed to the loss of small family farms and the movement of agricultural production away from California. We applaud Governor Newsom for shepherding this important reform effort and the legislature for passing it,” said Dave Puglia, President & CEO, Western Growers Association.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Q1 2024 Auto Outlook Report
Q1 2024 CA Auto Outlook Report: Tesla Registrations Drop; Sales Slip 7.8% YTD Overall New Vehicle Registrations Up; Toyota Market Share Exceeds 16%
Click on the image to view the report.
SACRAMENTO, CA, April 29, 2024— The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook covering the first quarter of 2024 today. The report summarizes quarterly new vehicle registration figures statewide and predicts overall 2024 sales. Experian Automotive provides data for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.
Californians’ love affair with electric vehicle giant Tesla may have peaked. Tesla registrations are down again in The Golden State YTD, reporting a 7.8 percent dip (last quarter posted a 9.8 percent decline) amongst all brand registrations. Toyota showed significant gains among the top three California shareholder brands, increasing to 16.6 percent, as did Honda, capturing 10.5 percent of the market, while Tesla’s numbers faltered (11.6 percent).
As Tesla’s dominance wanes, traditional manufacturers are stepping up to the plate, offering new plug-in hybrid (PHEV), hybrid, and battery electric vehicle (BEV) models. This shift is evident in the sales of BEVs by traditional franchised dealerships, which have surged by 14 percent (while direct sellers saw a three-point drop) compared to last year’s figures. Notably, franchised dealers account for over 66 percent of combined sales for all alternative powertrain types, demonstrating consumer confidence in local dealerships and mainstay brands (despite changing market dynamics).
“We’ve spent decades, even lifetimes, building trust with our neighbors, providing great jobs, and supporting our communities. Californians are smart. They recognize that we do our best to give customers high-quality cars they want at affordable price points,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “This is why we believe the Tesla sales model is ineffective, layoffs are happening, and people are generally dissatisfied with their level of service. We take pride in our dealerships, and it shows.”
The first quarter of 2024 reports a slight increase in overall registrations at .7 percent (the sixth consecutive quarterly increase) in the State, posting 431,638 new sales. This figure is in contrast with the Nation’s 9.6 percent improvement. Weaker results in California are partially attributed to relatively strong sales in the first quarter of 2023.
California’s pace of improvement is expected to ease overall in 2024 compared to last year. While registrations are predicted to exceed 1.8M units, the increase will likely remain in the single digits.
Toyota once again secured its lead as the top brand in California, with a 9.3 percent increase in registrations, as did Honda, with an impressive 18.6 percent jump YTD. The top three passenger cars sold were the Toyota Camry, the Honda Civic, and dropping from first place to third, the Tesla Model 3. The top three light trucks were the Tesla Model Y, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V.
Another brand of note this year is Dodge. Due to the recent introduction of the Hornet PHEV SUV, Dodge reported the second-highest positive change in California, with a 76.2 percent increase in new registrations last quarter.
Vehicle Powertrain Dashboard The report’s vehicle powertrain dashboard details the State’s BEV, hybrid, and PHEV sales and market health. The State’s BEV market share declined for the second quarter, falling to 20.9 percent from 21.5 percent at the end of 2023. Alternatively, the State’s hybrid registrations jumped again this quarter to 13 percent (up from 11.1 percent). California’s PHEV market share slightly increased, wrapping the first quarter at 3.6 percent.
Combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in The Golden State accounted for 37.5 percent of the market share last quarter (up from just 11.6 percent in 2018). Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 62.5 percent of registrations, dipping about 1.4 points from the end of 2023.
California continues to lead in BEV registrations, posting 32.5 percent of sales nationwide. The U.S. market share of BEV vehicles is far less substantial, posting 7.4 percent in Q1 2024.
Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Tesla may have the top three-selling electric vehicles in the State, however, first-quarter sales show a significant 6.4 percent YTD BEV market share loss. Mercedes and BMW showed the highest increases in BEV sales in the State last quarter, posting 3 and 2.4 percents, respectively.
Northern Californians continue to be the most significant adopters of BEVs, capturing 24.8 percent of the market share. Southern California BEV sales remained fairly level at 21.5 percent of sales last quarter.
Model Segment Rankings California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q1 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
Brand Market Share and Summary Registrations for five brands in the state have improved by more than 22 percent so far this year. Brands showing the most significant positive percent increases were Rivian (87.1 percent), Dodge (76.2 percent), Lexus (37.3 percent), Lincoln (25.8 percent), and Volvo (22 percent).
The Golden State’s brand registration numbers do not mirror those of the rest of the U.S., which reports Toyota at 13.4 percent of the market share, Ford at 12.4 percent, and Chevy at 10.4 percent last quarter.
Regional Variances Specifically, Car retail registrations in N. and S. California showed declines of 11.8 and 6 percents, respectively. Light truck retail registrations were up by 2.9 percent in N. California and 5.3 percent in S. California. A shining star, San Diego County’s share increased by 4.6 percent with 35,561 registrations this year.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a two-year perspective, vehicle powertrain dashboard, segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.77 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 138,807 people, paid $8.74 billion in sales tax, and donated $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with nearly 1,200 members— and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
2024 Dealer Day Recap and Photos
SACRAMENTO, CA – The California New Car Dealers Association would like to express our heartfelt appreciation to all who attended Dealer Day 2024 in Sacramento. We appreciate all the members who participated and gave their time to advocate for the future of California’s Automotive Industry. We hope you will join us again for Dealer Day 2025 on March 26, at the Sacramento Hyatt Regency.
Additionally, we want to sincerely thank our sponsor partners who helped make this event possible for our membership. Thank you again for your dedication to our industry and cause. We hope to see you all next year!
If you would like a high-res version of any of these images, please contact Autumn Heacox, Director of Communications & Marketing (aheacox@cncda.org).
Dealer Day Photography generously sponsored by:
California New Car Dealers Come to Sacramento for 2024 Dealer Day
Association Also Celebrates Century Milestone
SACRAMENTO, CA, March 18, 2024– The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) is preparing to host its Annual Dealer Day this Wednesday, March 20, 2024. This year’s event holds special significance as CNCDA proudly celebrates its 100-year anniversary, a testament to its unwavering commitment to shaping the automotive landscape in California.
With close to 1,200 members, CNCDA is the nation’s largest state association of franchised new car dealers.
The night before, on Tuesday evening, the association’s newly-formed NextGen dealer group will meet at Camden Spit & Larder to discuss the future of the automotive industry and the impact up-and-coming dealers can have in the Golden State.
On Dealer Day, all franchised new car dealers will attend CNCDA’s Annual Meeting of the Members, hosted at the Kimpton Sawyer Hotel downtown. Then, dealers will meet with their area representatives at The Swing Space for legislative appointments to discuss pending new laws relevant to CA’s retail automotive industry. Dealer Day concludes with a legislative reception at Revival in The Kimpton.
Since its establishment in 1924, CNCDA has been a formidable force, driving the growth and success of California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. The association’s history is marked by a series of impactful initiatives and legislative advocacies that have significantly shaped and influenced the automotive industry in the state, keeping the public informed and aware of the industry’s developments.
Recent legislative achievements include 2023’s landmark franchise bill, AB 473, which offered crucial protections for dealers from their respective manufacturers and underscored CNCDA’s commitment to protecting and promoting the automotive industry in California. This commitment is a testament to the member’s dedication to serving the transportation needs of the state’s motoring public.
CA’s New Car Dealers’ Economic Impact in 2023:
According to CNCDA’s recently released 2023 Economic Impact Report, California’s franchised new car dealers employed over 138,800 hard-working Californians and paid $10 billion in statewide taxes, contributing significantly to the state’s economy. The report highlights new car dealers’ contributions in charitable donations, taxes paid, and employment data, among other trends related to the state’s economic health.
Last year, California’s new car dealers sold 1.77 million new vehicles, 280,891 of which were electric vehicles (EVs), representing 21.4% of the total new light-duty vehicles sold in the Golden State.
Additionally, California’s new car dealers consistently act as local community stewards year after year, giving $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations in 2023, an average of $46,500 per dealership to good causes.
The average combined state and federal taxes paid per California dealership was $9.27 million, totaling $13.64 billion in taxes paid by California’s new car dealers in 2023.
Shaping the Next Century:
Founded in 1924, CNCDA has been a steadfast advocate for California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. The association’s continuous efforts in legislative advocacy, community engagement, and member-focused strategies have contributed to the thriving automotive industry in California.
CNCDA extends sincere gratitude to the dealers, including new dealers, legacy, and NextGen, who have generously contributed their time and efforts to the association’s enduring success. Many of these dealerships are family-owned and have operated since the inception of the automotive era.
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Event Media Contact: Autumn Heacox, Director of Communications & Marketing California New Car Dealers Association aheacox@cncda.org 916.439.6054
About CNCDA For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2022, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.6 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 136,000 people, paid $8.46 billion in sales tax, and donated $62.84 million to charitable and civic organizations. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with over 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Publishes 2023 Economic Impact Report
CNCDA published our 2023 Economic Impact Report this week. The report highlights the contributions new car dealers have made in charitable donations, taxes paid, and employment data, among other dealership trends related to California’s economy.
California’s franchised new car dealers continue to act as significant statewide contributors. In 2023, California’s new car dealers sold 1.77 million new vehicles, employed over 138,807 hard-working Californians, and paid $10 billion in statewide taxes. In 2023, the average California new car dealership employed roughly 95 people per dealership.
California’s new car dealers contributed significantly to the state’s economic health, paying a total of $8.74 billion in state sales tax in 2023, an average of $6.01 million of sales tax per dealership. The average total taxes paid per California dealership in 2023 was $9.27 million, totaling $13.64 billion statewide.
New Car Dealers sold 280,891 electric vehicles (EVs) in 2023 which represents 21.4% of the total new light-duty vehicles sold in the Golden State last year. The EV market share in California is three times higher than the EV market share in the rest of the United States. Dealers anticipate spending an average of $295,000 each on EV charging infrastructure in 2023 to help meet the needs of CA’s EV consumer demand.
Additionally, California’s new car dealers consistently act as local community stewards year after year, giving $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations in 2023, an average of $46,500 per dealership to good causes.
The report is made possible by CNCDA’s dealer members, who completed the association’s annual Economic Impact Survey and statewide auto sales data.
About CNCDA For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2022, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.6 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 136,000 people, paid $8.46 billion in sales tax, and donated $62.84 million to charitable and civic organizations. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with over 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
2024 NADA Show Recap and Photos
LAS VEGAS, NV – The California New Car Dealers Association would like to thank all members, sponsors, and friends who attended the 2024 NADA Show and CNCDA’s Welcome Party. We appreciate all the members who came to celebrate, reconnect, and learn. We hope to see you all in 2025 in New Orleans!
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Year-End 2023 Auto Outlook Report
CA 2023 Auto Market Recap: Highest Registrations Reported Since 2020 New Vehicle Registrations Post 11.9% Increase in 2023
Click on the image to view the report.
The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its fourth quarter 2023 California Auto Outlook report today. The report summarizes vehicle registration and sales data for 2023, and estimates projected 2024 sales in California’s vehicle market. CNCDA’s Auto Outlook data is sourced from Experian Automotive.
Major takeaways: 2023 proved to be a banner year for new car sales in California, reaching the highest numbers since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.78 million sales reported (higher than the 1.76 million predicted by this publication last year). Year over year, the state’s 2023 new vehicle registrations posted an 11.9 percent increase (1,775,915) compared to 2022 figures.
The top three passenger cars sold in California in 2023 were the Tesla Model 3, the Toyota Camry, and the Honda Civic. The top three light trucks for the year were the Tesla Model Y, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V. Toyota held its place as the top-selling brand in California again in 2023.
Predictions for 2024 include another increase in new vehicle registrations by 3.2 percent, approaching 1.83 million units sold. This is due to the state’s significant and lasting demand for new cars, a strong labor market, and a positive economic outlook statewide. Potential threats include the 2024 presidential election, geopolitical tensions, etc. However, should Federal interest rates level out, auto sales in California are poised to post a more significant increase than predicted. These predictions are based on current trends and market conditions and may be subject to adjustment.
The report highlights the fifth consecutive quarterly increase in new car sales in the state. The Q4 2023 pace of new car sales showed a slight acceleration compared to Q3 (20.3 percent), posting a respectable 6 percent increase. The 2023 final registration numbers exceeded 426,000 units, 24,000 units higher than reported in Q4 2022.
“Overall, 2023 was a solid year for our businesses. We were able to adapt and evolve to meet our customers’ needs and preferences while remaining community stalwarts,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “We do our best to work with our respective manufacturers to inform them about statewide customer trends and order the vehicles that Californians tell us they want when they walk onto our lots daily.”
Vehicle Powertrain Dashboard
The report’s new vehicle powertrain dashboard details the state’s battery electric vehicles (BEV), non-plug-in hybrid, and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales and market health. The state’s BEV market share declined in Q4 2023 from the previous quarter, closing the year at 21.4 percent. Alternatively, the state’s non-plug-in hybrid vehicles jumped to their highest numbers, at 11.1 percent sold in 2023. California’s total new BEV market share sales increased by five percent compared to 2022.
ICE-powered vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 63.9 percent of the state’s new vehicle sales share in 2023, losing about 7.7 points from 2022 numbers. In 2023, combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in the state accounted for 35.9 percent of the market share (compared to 11.6 percent in 2018).
California leads the way in BEV registrations, posting 33.8 percent of all sales nationwide. The U.S. market share of BEV vehicles is less substantial, posting 7.5 percent in 2023.
Hybrids and Electric Vehicles
California’s top three selling BEV and PHEV models are the Tesla Model Y, Tesla Model 3, and the Chevy Bolt. The Jeep Wrangler captured fourth place and remained the best-selling PHEV in 2023.
While Tesla remains California’s BEV market share leader, its lead is diminishing as traditional automakers roll out new electric models. Tesla showed a significant decline in sales in 2023, with a 10.5 percent loss in market share YTD. Mercedes and BMW showed the highest increase in BEV sales in the state, reporting 2.2 and 2.8 percent, respectively.
In 2023, franchised dealerships accounted for over 62 percent of all alternative powertrain types in combined sales. Last year, franchised dealership sales in the BEV-only market increased to 35.8 percent. Sales of BEVs at franchised dealerships rose 94 percent from 2022 to 2023, compared to a 29 percent increase by direct sellers. This helps further demonstrate that Californians are interested in purchasing new BEV model rollouts from the mainstay manufacturers that they know and trust.
In 2023, Northern Californians remained the significant adopters of BEVs, capturing 25.6 percent of the state’s BEV market share, while Southern CA sales reported 21.3 percent of registrations.
Model Segment Rankings
California’s 2023 best sellers in the primary segments include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and the Lexus RX.
Brand Market Share and Summary
Brand registrations increased in 2023 for 26 of the top 30 selling brands in the state, with Toyota remaining California’s market share leader, holding 15.7 percent. Tesla follows at 13 percent, Honda holds 9.7 percent, Ford at 7.7 percent, and Chevrolet at 6.7 percent.
The state’s registration numbers do not mirror the rest of the U.S., which reports Toyota (12.6 percent of share), Ford (11.8 percent), and Chevy (at 11.2 percent) as the top-selling brands in 2023.
The brands showing the most significant positive change in 2023 registration numbers in California were Rivian (142.7 percent), Buick (57.3 percent), Infinity (34.7 percent), Honda (33.4 percent), and Audi (31.5 percent).
Regional Variances
Car and light truck retail registrations from Northern and Southern California markets are up from last year. The Northern market captured an additional 10.1 percent of the statewide total year over year, with the Southern portion of the state showing an 8.8 percent increase from 2022.
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California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on CA’s new vehicle market, includes annual trends, a two-year perspective, vehicle powertrain dashboard, segment watch, the top models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Access the complete report at www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2022, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.6 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 136,000 people, paid $8.46 billion in sales tax, and donated $62.84 million to charitable and civic organizations. As the nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with over 1,200 members—CNCDA provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
SACRAMENTO, CA – The California New Car Dealers Association would like to express our heartfelt appreciation to all who attended the 2023 Annual Convention. We appreciate all the members who came to celebrate, reconnect, and gave their time for professional development and inspiration. We hope you join us again next September on the BIG island at the Four Seasons Hualalai.
Additionally, we want to thank our sponsor partners who helped make this event possible for our membership. Thank you again for your dedication to our industry and cause. We hope to see you all next year!
