California New Car Dealers Association Releases Q3 2025 Auto Outlook
Contact: Autumn Heacox, Director of Communications & Marketing: aheacox@cncda.org, (916) 441-2599 x105
Q3 2025 CA Auto Outlook: ZEVs Surge to One in Four Sales as Federal Tax Credit Ends
Tesla Hits Two-Year Slump; Toyota Makes Gains
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SACRAMENTO, CA, October 22, 2025— The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) today released its Q3 2025 California Auto Outlook report, providing an analysis of statewide new vehicle registration trends. All data in the report is sourced from Experian Automotive; please cite when referencing these findings.
Key Takeaways California’s new light vehicle market continued its steady climb through the third quarter, with registrations rising 5.4 percent YTD and 3.6 percent in Q3 compared to the same period in 2024. The state is on track to see a modest annual increase by year-end.
The quarter’s most striking shift came in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales, which spiked to 24.7 percent of the market. The increase was likely fueled by consumers rushing to purchase electric vehicles before September’s federal tax credit expiration. Despite this short-term lift, ZEV market share stands at 21.2 percent YTD, short of 2024’s posted 22 percent, signaling continued challenges for sustained EV adoption.
Tesla Slides as Toyota Shines Tesla has fallen for two straight years in the Golden State as registrations declined 15.1 percent YTD, dropping 9.4 percent in Q3. Toyota reigned again this quarter as California’s top-selling brand, capturing 17.4 percent of the state’s market share compared to Tesla’s 9.8 percent. Toyota registrations continue to climb, posting the most significant market share gain among all brands with a 1 percent increase YTD, and a sizable 2.4 percent jump in Q3.
The Toyota Camry also beat out Tesla’s Model 3 as the top-selling passenger car YTD, capturing 12.8 percent of the market.
Alternative Powertrain Registrations on the Rise While the ZEV market was unusually strong this quarter, hybrid registrations accounted for 18.9 percent of new registrations in Q3, posting 19.1 percent YTD. This surpasses 2024’s 14.8 percent hybrid total, suggesting that Californians want cleaner transportation options. However, they also prefer a balanced, gradual transition to the electrification of their personal transportation.
“Dealers are seeing real enthusiasm from customers for the latest hybrid and electric technologies, especially as the mainstay brands expand their lineups,” said Robb Hernandez, CNCDA Chairman and president of Camino Real Chevrolet. “Californians want choices that fit their lives and budgets. Our dealers are here to provide hybrids, EVs, or gas-powered options that meet them where they are.”
Combined sales of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and zero-emission vehicles have reached 44.1 percent YTD, showing progress toward cleaner transportation in the state, but not at the all-electric pace policymakers envisioned. Despite ZEVs reaching their highest quarterly share (24.7 percent) since early 2023, the spike is expected to fade now that federal tax credits have expired.
The California Air Resources Board’s Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC2) mandate continues to face legal uncertainty after being struck down earlier this year under the Congressional Review Act. The ACC2 mandate excluded all hybrids and many PHEV models. While litigation is ongoing, policymakers’ goal of 100 percent ZEV sales by 2035 remains far from current consumer trends, and it is highly unlikely that ZEV sales would have met the initial 35 percent threshold for model year 2026.
Brand and Model Rankings Toyota leads the California market, followed by Honda (10.9 percent), Tesla (9.8 percent), Ford (7.7 percent), and Chevrolet (6.5 percent).
Top passenger car models include the Toyota Camry (45,617 registrations), Tesla Model 3 (44,173), and Honda Civic (41,130). Leading light trucks include the Tesla Model Y (79,448), Toyota RAV4 (49,584), and Honda CR-V (41,217).
Brands showing notable growth YTD include Buick, Jeep, Acura, Genesis, Cadillac, and Land Rover, each posting increases above 20 percent compared to Q3 2024.
Regional Trends Northern California outpaced the rest of the state, with registrations up 5 percent and a ZEV share of 24.9 percent. Southern California saw a 2.9 percent gain, with ZEVs accounting for 22.2 percent. The San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles/Orange Counties, and San Diego County all posted moderate growth.
Franchised dealerships continue to lead in consumer engagement and accessibility, accounting for nearly half (49.7 percent) of all ZEV sales in the state, a gain from 40.8 percent one year ago.
Statewide Outlook With the federal EV credit now expired, economists expect ZEV sales to normalize in Q4 as market forces and consumer preferences rebalance. The state’s total new vehicle registrations are projected to reach 1.74 million units in 2025, a slight increase from 2024.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a two-year perspective, vehicle powertrain dashboard, segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For over 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs.
In 2024, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.85 million new and used cars and trucks, employed more than 138,478 people, paid $8.83 billion in sales tax, and donated $70.75 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers, with nearly 1,200 members, and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
Sharing Good News: The Pink Acura Experience
Fresno Acura — 12 years have passed since Fresno Acura created the #PinkAcura experience to connect with the community and to help raise funds for local breast cancer research and awareness. You may have spotted our Pink Acura driving around town joining with local events, fundraisers, businesses and schools to collect signatures on the car. Those signatures have allowed our community to express their thoughts for all to see and admire. Whether it is a solo signature, a message to a lost loved one or an inspiration to keep fighting the fight, the pink car has been motivation for all. At the end of our tour, Fresno Acura donated to Community Medical Center’s Radin Breast Care Center. This donation directly assists in the purchase of state of the art technology to help every patient who uses these facilities.
As a female, family owned business, Fresno Acura is proud to be involved in spreading awareness and reminding our community to take their health seriously and to go get that check up they have been putting off! We all know someone whose life has been affected by breast cancer, please join us in signing your name on the Pink Acura this year to help us promote positivity and to inspire hope.
If you would like to see the #PinkAcura at your event or business this October, please reach out as we would love to participate.
Sony Honda and its partners are operating in direct violation of Assembly Bill 473 (AB 473), a 2023 law prohibiting automakers from using affiliated brands to compete with their own franchised dealers. Despite this law, Sony Honda and its partners are taking $200 deposits directly from California consumers through its website for upcoming Afeela vehicles, thus bypassing the state’s Honda and Acura dealerships.
“This is a direct attack on the 161 franchised Honda and Acura dealers in California that have been loyal partners in building the brand’s reputation and success for decades,” said Brian Maas, CNCDA President. “At the time of AB 473’s review by the California legislature, Sony Honda sought to block the (now) law that would make their direct sales of Afeela vehicles illegal. They are now knowingly violating the law, hoping they won’t be caught. It’s our job to protect the dealers who are directly harmed by their actions.”
“By cutting dealers out, they’re stripping vital consumer protections like local service support, transparent pricing, and warranty assistance, all while undermining the millions these dealers have invested in their facilities, employees, and communities. We will not allow a manufacturer to turn its back on the very network that made it profitable in the first place,” said Maas.
CNCDA is seeking immediate injunctive relief to halt these unlawful sales, along with enforcement of state law to protect California’s dealer network and the consumers they serve.
California’s franchised dealers are key economic drivers, selling more than 1.85 million new cars and trucks, employing over 138,000 Californians, and generating more than $8.8 billion in sales tax revenue. In 2024, dealers donated nearly $71 million to charitable and civic organizations statewide.
For over 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers, with nearly 1,200 members, and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
California New Car Dealers Association Releases Q2 2025 Auto Outlook
Contact: Autumn Heacox, Director of Communications & Marketing: aheacox@cncda.org, (916) 441-2599 x105
Q2 2025 CA Auto Outlook: Tesla Sales Nosedive, Dragging Down ZEV Market Hybrids Surge, ICE Holds Steady, and Tariff Uncertainty Looms
Click on the image to view the report.
SACRAMENTO, CA, July 22, 2025— Today, the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its Q2 2025 California Auto Outlook Report, analyzing new vehicle registration trends for the first half of the year. All data in the report is sourced from Experian Automotive and must be cited when referencing these findings.
Key Takeaways Seven appears unlucky for Tesla, as this is the most recent number of quarterly registration declines reported in the state. The electric-only automaker experienced an 18.3 percent drop in registrations compared to the first half of 2024. The direct-to-consumer automaker lacks a robust dealership network for sales support, which may have contributed to a 2.7 point decline in its market share year-to-date, with Q2 alone seeing a 2.9 point decrease. This decline pulled down the overall Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) share in the state, which fell to 18.2 percent this quarter and 19.5 percent year-to-date, down from 22.0 percent in 2024.
Alternatively, hybrid vehicles are gaining momentum and paving the way for a cleaner, greener California. Registrations for hybrids have climbed 54 percent so far this year, now accounting for 19.2 percent of the market, totaling 181,192 registrations. Gasoline and diesel vehicles continue to lead, with internal combustion engine (ICE) models making up 57.5 percent of the market.
“Dealers are focused on what Californians are buying, not just what policymakers want them to buy,” said Robb Hernandez, CNCDA Chairman and president of Camino Real Chevrolet. “It’s clear many consumers still face barriers to going fully electric, whether that’s due to affordability, lack of infrastructure, or range anxiety. Dealers are here to help customers find what works for their lives, whether that’s a ZEV, a hybrid, or a traditional gas-powered vehicle.”
ZEV Progress Slows as Policy Clouds Gather California’s Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC2) regulation, which required 100 percent ZEV sales by 2035, has encountered legal and political headwinds. The rule, set to take effect starting with model year 2026, required each manufacturer to sell 35 percent ZEVs, which would have been a massive long shot considering this quarter’s backslide to just 18.2 percent of ZEV sales (the lowest since Q3 2022).
While the mandate was invalidated earlier this year under the federal Congressional Review Act, litigation from the Newsom administration is ongoing, and the future of ACC2 (or a newly revised version) remains uncertain.
With hybrids gaining popularity and Tesla’s decline dragging down overall ZEV numbers, California policymakers’ ZEV-only strategy may need realignment. Notably, combined alternative powertrain vehicles (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, BEV, and fuel cell vehicles) account for 42.5 percent of new vehicle registrations statewide. Meanwhile, the state’s share of national ZEV registrations remains strong at 28.6 percent.
Brand Market Share and Summary Toyota continues to lead the California market with a 17.3 percent share, followed by Honda (11 percent), Tesla (8.8 percent), Ford (7.7 percent), and Chevrolet (6.6 percent). Brands showing strong year-to-date growth include Buick, Jeep, Acura, Genesis, Cadillac, Land Rover, and Chevrolet, each posting increases of over 20 percent in registrations compared to the same period last year.
Model Segment Rankings Top-selling passenger cars so far this year include the Tesla Model 3 with 31,394 registrations (12.6 percent share), followed closely by the Toyota Camry at 30,490 (12.2 percent), and the Honda Civic at 28,531 (11.5 percent).
Leading light truck models include the Tesla Model Y (6.3 percent share), Toyota RAV4 (4.9 percent), and Honda CR-V (4.3 percent).
Regional Variances Regional data shows steady growth across the state. The San Francisco Bay Area rose 3.4 percent, Los Angeles and Orange Counties climbed 2.3 percent, and San Diego County increased by 2.5 percent. Northern California led the state in BEV share at 23.0 percent, while Southern California held at 20.7 percent.
Statewide Impacts Despite a strong start to the year, rising tariffs, inflation, and consumer caution may soften California’s automotive outlook for the second half of 2025. Statewide, 944,834 new vehicles were registered during the first half of 2025, marking a 6.6 percent increase over the same period last year. New vehicle registrations were also up 5.5 percent in Q2 2025 compared to Q2 2024. The forecast for total 2025 registrations is 1.72 million, slightly below last year’s 1.75 million total.
California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the Data Source: Experian Automotive.
The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a two-year perspective, vehicle powertrain dashboard, segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org.
About CNCDA
For over 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs.
In 2024, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.85 million new and used cars and trucks, employed more than 138,478 people, paid $8.83 billion in sales tax, and donated $70.75 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers, with nearly 1,200 members, and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.
