Skip to Content

California New Car Dealers Association Releases EOY 2024 Auto Outlook Report

Media Contact: Autumn Heacox, Communications & Marketing Director: aheacox@cncda.org, (916) 441-2599 x105

Year End 2024 CA Auto Outlook Report: Tesla’s Fifth Quarterly Decline
CA’s ZEV Market Losing Speed; Hybrids Gaining Traction

Click on the image to view the report.

SACRAMENTO, CA, January 31, 2025— Today, the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) released its California Auto Outlook Report covering 2024 vehicle registrations in the state. The report summarizes California’s new vehicle registrations and predicts anticipated yearly sales. For accurate reporting, please cite Experian Automotive as the data source for CNCDA’s Auto Outlook.

Things aren’t looking so golden for EV automaker Tesla in the Golden State. Tesla’s dominance in the electric vehicle market continues to falter as the brand reported its fifth consecutive quarterly registration decline. Tesla’s registrations fell 7.8 percent in Q4 2024, contributing to an overall 11.6 percent decline in 2024. The company’s market share also dropped by 7.6 points in 2024, now holding 52.5 percent of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) market for the year. Amongst all brands, Tesla’s share of California’s market is 11.6 percent, down from 13 percent in 2023.

Overall, California’s new vehicle registrations among all brands remain stable. 1,759,141 light vehicles were registered in the Golden State in 2024, representing only a -0.3 percent change from 2023. Projections for 2025 are optimistic, with registrations expected to rise slightly to 1.80 million for the year.

New vehicle registrations in Q4 2024 increased by 4.8 percent compared to the same period in 2023, signaling positive momentum heading into 2025. However, the first quarter of 2025 is expected to remain fairly flat.

Key Highlights
The most significant trend to emerge this quarter is the shift in consumer preference within the alternative powertrain sector. ZEV market share for all brands dipped to 21.3 percent in Q4, down from 23.7 percent in Q3 2024. Annual California ZEV totals hit 22 percent (market share in 2023 was 21.7 percent).

Registrations for all alternative powertrains reached 40.2 percent for the year and 42.2 percent in Q4. Notably, hybrids made up the ground lost by ZEVs, gaining 2.4 percentage points in Q4, matching the 2.4 point decline in ZEV registrations. This shift suggests that California consumers may be looking to transition gradually from internal combustion engines (ICE) to fully electric vehicles, with hybrids emerging as an increasingly popular option.

“As dealers, our primary goal is to offer the vehicles that Californians actually want to drive. Whether it’s hybrids, electric vehicles, or traditional models, we are here to meet consumer demand. It’s not about mandates or pushing one type of powertrain over another—it’s about having the right inventory on our lots to serve the needs of real customers and our communities,” says Robb Hernandez, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Camino Real Chevrolet.

Brand Market Share and Summary
Among all powertrains and brands, Toyota is king in California, with 289,258 registrations in 2024, a 4.4 percent increase from last year, and now capturing 16.4 percent of California’s market share.

Other YTD market share brand leaders: Tesla and Honda (with 10.9 percent market share). Honda wrapped the year with an 11.5 percent increase in registrations this year (192,166 registrations).

Four brands have improved their registrations by 20 percent (or more) in 2024. These brands include Lincoln (27.6 percent), Land Rover (22 percent), Cadillac (21.7%), and Buick (21.7 percent).

Model Segment Rankings
California’s best sellers in the primary segments in 2024 were the Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Honda Civic, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.

The top three passenger cars sold in California to wrap 2024 were neck and neck to the finish line. The Toyota Camry came out the winner with 11.4 percent of the market. Tied for second place were the Honda Civic and Tesla Model 3, with 11 percent of California’s market share. The top three light trucks sold were the Tesla Model Y (128,923 registrations), the Toyota RAV4 (65,041), and the Honda CR-V (49,920 registrations).

Regional Variances
Northern California saw a 12.6% decline in passenger cars but a 1.5% rise in light trucks, with ZEVs accounting for 25.1% of the region’s market share. In Southern California, passenger car registrations dropped by 10.3%, while light trucks grew 5%, with ZEVs making up 22.7% of the market.

Click Here to Access the EOY 2024 Auto Outlook Report.

###

California Auto Outlook Quarterly is produced for CNCDA by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent research company that analyzes statewide and regional automotive markets. When reporting these auto industry trends, please acknowledge the data source: Experian Automotive.

The report provides comprehensive information on California’s new vehicle market, including annual trends, a vehicle powertrain dashboard, a segment watch, the top five models in each segment, brand scoreboards, regional comparisons, and more. Visit www.cncda.org. 

About CNCDA

For over 100 years, the California New Car Dealers Association has represented California’s franchised new car and truck dealers. CNCDA members are primarily engaged in the retail sale and lease of new and used motor vehicles and provide automotive products, parts, services, and repairs. In 2023, California’s franchised new car dealers sold more than 1.77 million new cars and trucks, employed more than 138,807 people, paid $8.74 billion in sales tax, and donated $67.66 million to charitable and civic organizations. CNCDA is the Nation’s largest state association of franchised automotive dealers—with nearly 1,200 members— and provides legal compliance and legislative, regulatory, and legal advocacy.

Back to top